thanks richard... good overview.. not sure how this gets worked out.. i would prefer a different scenario then the one you and medvedev cite, but i don't know what it will be.. we will see how it goes.. you may both be right!
Everyone would prefer a different scenario - even the neocons since it implies they lose - but of course we're well past that. For the West and the government in Ukraine, it's called "blowing it" where I come from. It all could have been avoided.
But as I know, humans always make a mistake, then proceed to try to fix it by making even more mistakes until everything collapses. This is true in our personal lives and true at society - even civilization - scale. That's one reason why I'm a radical Transhumanist.
as i recall you thought this whole thing would be over much sooner.... it sounds as though medvedev thinks it can go on for forever... would you like to comment on this aspect of it? thanks for your additional thoughts... i will have to look up what ''radical transhumanist'' means..
I think Medvedev was probably mixing the overall war with NATO with the specific war in Ukraine. The Ukraine part of it will be be over within a year; the actual combat likely over before then; and the starting collapse of the army within the 3-6 months time frame I use.
In other words, the Ukrainian army will collapse and be forced into a general retreat within 3-6 months (their are signs that has started), followed by the Russians advancing in whatever direction they want - say, to take Odessa or bypass that and take Kiev - which may take months more depending on how much more resistance they get from whatever is left of the Ukrainian army, followed by the actual collapse of the Ukrainian government, however that occurs - surrender, a military coup, whatever. The details don't actually matter. Russia wins within another year.
I read somewhere that the Russians had budgeted for 30 months of this conflict, which would mean over by end of next summer. Of course, events could change that: Polish intervention, for example.
In my view, people get bogged down in "territorial analysis", i.e., will Russia take Odessa, will Russia take this or that city. I think Russia doesn't care about the cities. The only reason they matter is how many Ukrainian troops are hiding in them. Once Russia starts to advance on Kiev, those troops either have to come out to fight or they can simply be bypassed. Once the government has collapsed, Russia can root out any left-over Ukrainian units. Most of them will likely surrender since they won't be getting any more ammo from western Ukraine. So why engage in dirty city fighting if you don't have to? Russia did so in eastern Ukraine because it had to, not because it wanted to grab any cities. Once the front is broken, the only thing that matters is annihilating whatever Ukrainian units are left in the field capable of resisting the advance.
This stuff seems utterly logical to me, but apparently very few people - even most of the military analysts - don't seem to get it. They all still think this is a war like WWII. They should think like Iraq. Did the US military try to grab every city in Iraq during the invasion? No - they went straight to Baghdad, only dealing with Iraqi units that came out to fight, or seizing whatever city was a critical road hub or supply route to those units. This is what a steamroller does.
As for the overall war with NATO, who knows how long that will go on? It depends on two things: 1) whether NATO will try to take Russia on directly, and 2) how long the EU countries' economies can sustain any sort of military buildup before their governments are toppled by their own citizens. All that could take another decade. But if NATO engages Russia directly, that will be, in Andrei Martyanov's words, "real war" and NATO will be devastated quickly. Whether that leads to nuclear war then becomes the issue.
My version is "radical" because I generally don't like the human species and don't actually care what happens to it as a result of the development of the enabling technologies for Transhumanism. I'll be covering all that in later posts on my Substack.
sound analysis richard.. thanks... and yet - things can always get thrown off a plan.. regardless, your analysis is sound as i see it... thanks for the link on transhumanism.. i was looking at it earlier today... i am not sure what to make of it or your take on it.. cheers..
Another BTW... Here's Martyanov on the mistranslation of what Medvedev said. I took Medvedev's statement directly from his Telegram channel, not RT.
The Yellowing Of RT.
Shoddy Journalism infection hit RT big time. They post sensationalist clickbait headline:
Ukraine conflict ‘could last for decades’ – Medvedev
The problem is, of course, that Medvedev NEVER stated anything like this. Here is his TG channel:
Оно должно быть уничтожено дотла. Вернее так, чтобы даже пепла от него не осталось. Чтобы эта мерзость никогда, ни при каких условиях не могла возродиться. Если на это потребуются годы и даже десятилетия – так тому и быть. У нас нет выбора:
Translation: That (404) must be annihilated completely. That not even ashes remain. That filth should never resurrect under any conditions. If it will take years or even decades--so be it. We have no choice.
Obviously, RT didn't notice that Medvedev used "If" as in hypothetical scenario and that he merely indicated Russia's resolve. He never stated that conflict "could last years or decades". So, my suggestion--before RT complains about lowlife "journalism" from such sewers as CNN or BBC, they better clean their own house and stop posting tabloid sensationalist clickbait headlines and stick to real reporting. As for the longevity of the "conflict"--there are people with qualifications and experiences beyond RT's understanding who will make sure that this conflict lasts as little time as possible.
Thank you for helping drive home the fact that Medvedev is not just flapping his gums. His voice and words carry serious weight - time to wake up and smell the coffee! Before it becomes unaffordable....
“Great minds think alike!” I get the sense that he’s taking care to adhere to the opinions and certainly policies set forth by Putin AND Dmitry Peskov who often puts a finer emphasis on the president’s “opinions”. Is he prepping to step into Putin’s shoes? Stay tuned and pass the popcorn!
Thank you, Richard, for all your articles and this includes your today's outstanding summary of the situation and it is also good to see how Dima Medvedev summed it up so excellently.
If this goes the way you suggest, then we are likely to see a border far too long for a single "Front" or Army Group. You might see something akin to 1941 with a Southern Front facing Rumania, a Southwest Front facing Poland/Hungary (wherever borders there end up?), a Russian:Belorussian grouping in and North of the Pripet Marshes - a "Western Front", and a North Western Front facing the Balkans. Finland would need its own Northern Front or group of forces. Each of these Fronts would needs sufficient capabilities to deter any likely attack and would be sizable in their own right. As in Soviet times, Russia would also have large reserve forces as well as a mobilisation capacity to create new units and replacements.
By being so hawkish, NATO has encouraged Russia to re-arm itself. Soon it will have one of the largest militaries in the world, combat seasoned and with new and battle tested docrine and weapons, and led by experienced officers and backed by a revitalised MIC. Way to go NATO, I think you just achieved the polar opposite of what you intended.
Indeed. There may well be more than one new Military District created in Ukraine. There are two being created in western Russia and I think another opposite Finland. It will probably depend on what are the most likely avenues of approach from the NATO states involved.
Russia might also rev up its ability to move forces by train. There was a comment in the Navy Analysis document I referred to about how many trains it would take to move Russia's forces from one threatened area to another. IIRC it also referred to how the Zapid exercise demonstrated Russia could do such moves rapidly. So that might limit how many new Districts Russia will need to create. After all, it takes time for NATO to build up an effective invasion force and Russia will use that time to move its own forces into the most probable positions.
Oliver Anthony's song hit YouTube early last week. By the end of the week he's world famous. Next week the song will be sung in karaoke bars nationwide. The following week it starts a revolution. Wouldn't that be something?
Politicians on the left and right are making the song their own using it to foment division in service to their Oligarch Mega Donor Masters. Those damn politicians are the Rich North of Richmond. Tell those politicians who are trying to make the song their own to piss off! It'll strike fear in the hearts of the billionaire Oligarchs because they know that now we're on to them and we're coming for them!
thanks richard... good overview.. not sure how this gets worked out.. i would prefer a different scenario then the one you and medvedev cite, but i don't know what it will be.. we will see how it goes.. you may both be right!
Everyone would prefer a different scenario - even the neocons since it implies they lose - but of course we're well past that. For the West and the government in Ukraine, it's called "blowing it" where I come from. It all could have been avoided.
But as I know, humans always make a mistake, then proceed to try to fix it by making even more mistakes until everything collapses. This is true in our personal lives and true at society - even civilization - scale. That's one reason why I'm a radical Transhumanist.
as i recall you thought this whole thing would be over much sooner.... it sounds as though medvedev thinks it can go on for forever... would you like to comment on this aspect of it? thanks for your additional thoughts... i will have to look up what ''radical transhumanist'' means..
I think Medvedev was probably mixing the overall war with NATO with the specific war in Ukraine. The Ukraine part of it will be be over within a year; the actual combat likely over before then; and the starting collapse of the army within the 3-6 months time frame I use.
In other words, the Ukrainian army will collapse and be forced into a general retreat within 3-6 months (their are signs that has started), followed by the Russians advancing in whatever direction they want - say, to take Odessa or bypass that and take Kiev - which may take months more depending on how much more resistance they get from whatever is left of the Ukrainian army, followed by the actual collapse of the Ukrainian government, however that occurs - surrender, a military coup, whatever. The details don't actually matter. Russia wins within another year.
I read somewhere that the Russians had budgeted for 30 months of this conflict, which would mean over by end of next summer. Of course, events could change that: Polish intervention, for example.
In my view, people get bogged down in "territorial analysis", i.e., will Russia take Odessa, will Russia take this or that city. I think Russia doesn't care about the cities. The only reason they matter is how many Ukrainian troops are hiding in them. Once Russia starts to advance on Kiev, those troops either have to come out to fight or they can simply be bypassed. Once the government has collapsed, Russia can root out any left-over Ukrainian units. Most of them will likely surrender since they won't be getting any more ammo from western Ukraine. So why engage in dirty city fighting if you don't have to? Russia did so in eastern Ukraine because it had to, not because it wanted to grab any cities. Once the front is broken, the only thing that matters is annihilating whatever Ukrainian units are left in the field capable of resisting the advance.
This stuff seems utterly logical to me, but apparently very few people - even most of the military analysts - don't seem to get it. They all still think this is a war like WWII. They should think like Iraq. Did the US military try to grab every city in Iraq during the invasion? No - they went straight to Baghdad, only dealing with Iraqi units that came out to fight, or seizing whatever city was a critical road hub or supply route to those units. This is what a steamroller does.
As for the overall war with NATO, who knows how long that will go on? It depends on two things: 1) whether NATO will try to take Russia on directly, and 2) how long the EU countries' economies can sustain any sort of military buildup before their governments are toppled by their own citizens. All that could take another decade. But if NATO engages Russia directly, that will be, in Andrei Martyanov's words, "real war" and NATO will be devastated quickly. Whether that leads to nuclear war then becomes the issue.
Transhumanism is decently covered in Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism
My version is "radical" because I generally don't like the human species and don't actually care what happens to it as a result of the development of the enabling technologies for Transhumanism. I'll be covering all that in later posts on my Substack.
sound analysis richard.. thanks... and yet - things can always get thrown off a plan.. regardless, your analysis is sound as i see it... thanks for the link on transhumanism.. i was looking at it earlier today... i am not sure what to make of it or your take on it.. cheers..
By the way, thanks for mentioning my post at MoA. Got another 19 subscribers from there and elsewhere.
more power to you!
Another BTW... Here's Martyanov on the mistranslation of what Medvedev said. I took Medvedev's statement directly from his Telegram channel, not RT.
The Yellowing Of RT.
Shoddy Journalism infection hit RT big time. They post sensationalist clickbait headline:
Ukraine conflict ‘could last for decades’ – Medvedev
The problem is, of course, that Medvedev NEVER stated anything like this. Here is his TG channel:
Оно должно быть уничтожено дотла. Вернее так, чтобы даже пепла от него не осталось. Чтобы эта мерзость никогда, ни при каких условиях не могла возродиться. Если на это потребуются годы и даже десятилетия – так тому и быть. У нас нет выбора:
Translation: That (404) must be annihilated completely. That not even ashes remain. That filth should never resurrect under any conditions. If it will take years or even decades--so be it. We have no choice.
Obviously, RT didn't notice that Medvedev used "If" as in hypothetical scenario and that he merely indicated Russia's resolve. He never stated that conflict "could last years or decades". So, my suggestion--before RT complains about lowlife "journalism" from such sewers as CNN or BBC, they better clean their own house and stop posting tabloid sensationalist clickbait headlines and stick to real reporting. As for the longevity of the "conflict"--there are people with qualifications and experiences beyond RT's understanding who will make sure that this conflict lasts as little time as possible.
thanks! that is an interesting wrinkle to be made aware of.. i appreciate it..
Thank you for helping drive home the fact that Medvedev is not just flapping his gums. His voice and words carry serious weight - time to wake up and smell the coffee! Before it becomes unaffordable....
I wonder if Medvedev is positioning himself to be Putin's [natural] successor. If so these words carry even more weight.
“Great minds think alike!” I get the sense that he’s taking care to adhere to the opinions and certainly policies set forth by Putin AND Dmitry Peskov who often puts a finer emphasis on the president’s “opinions”. Is he prepping to step into Putin’s shoes? Stay tuned and pass the popcorn!
Russia's history with the West goes back much further, centuries further back to the Crusades of the Holy Roman Empire.
Sent here by a commentator at Moon of Alabama.
Thank you, Richard, for all your articles and this includes your today's outstanding summary of the situation and it is also good to see how Dima Medvedev summed it up so excellently.
If this goes the way you suggest, then we are likely to see a border far too long for a single "Front" or Army Group. You might see something akin to 1941 with a Southern Front facing Rumania, a Southwest Front facing Poland/Hungary (wherever borders there end up?), a Russian:Belorussian grouping in and North of the Pripet Marshes - a "Western Front", and a North Western Front facing the Balkans. Finland would need its own Northern Front or group of forces. Each of these Fronts would needs sufficient capabilities to deter any likely attack and would be sizable in their own right. As in Soviet times, Russia would also have large reserve forces as well as a mobilisation capacity to create new units and replacements.
By being so hawkish, NATO has encouraged Russia to re-arm itself. Soon it will have one of the largest militaries in the world, combat seasoned and with new and battle tested docrine and weapons, and led by experienced officers and backed by a revitalised MIC. Way to go NATO, I think you just achieved the polar opposite of what you intended.
Indeed. There may well be more than one new Military District created in Ukraine. There are two being created in western Russia and I think another opposite Finland. It will probably depend on what are the most likely avenues of approach from the NATO states involved.
Russia might also rev up its ability to move forces by train. There was a comment in the Navy Analysis document I referred to about how many trains it would take to move Russia's forces from one threatened area to another. IIRC it also referred to how the Zapid exercise demonstrated Russia could do such moves rapidly. So that might limit how many new Districts Russia will need to create. After all, it takes time for NATO to build up an effective invasion force and Russia will use that time to move its own forces into the most probable positions.
Oliver Anthony's song hit YouTube early last week. By the end of the week he's world famous. Next week the song will be sung in karaoke bars nationwide. The following week it starts a revolution. Wouldn't that be something?
Politicians on the left and right are making the song their own using it to foment division in service to their Oligarch Mega Donor Masters. Those damn politicians are the Rich North of Richmond. Tell those politicians who are trying to make the song their own to piss off! It'll strike fear in the hearts of the billionaire Oligarchs because they know that now we're on to them and we're coming for them!