Dmitry Medvedev Agrees With Me...

On the future of Ukraine...

Straight from the horse’s mouth, as it were - although Medvedev has been probably rightly accused of being the “bad cop” to Putin’s “good cop” (when it comes to negotiations). Translated from the Russian by Mate Translate utility.

Dmitry Medvedev:

The defeat of the West in the Ukrainian direction is inevitable. And let their leaders, who have forgotten about their own citizens, shout with each other that they will support the stubs of the Square with weapons and money for as long as it takes. They will train soldiers for the Kyiv meat-packing plant, they will restore the ruins of the dying economy of the Bandera regime. Will maintain insane sanctions against Russia. It won't help.

Why? For them, this is a strange war in which people who are strangers to them are dying. And although they do not feel sorry for them, the West will never go beyond the fact that it will begin to harm its interests too much. No matter how loudly he laments at his summits and at the UN. Someone else's war sooner or later becomes boring, costly and irrelevant.

And for us it is a tragedy involving our people. This is an existential conflict. War for self-preservation. Either they or we.

Some time will pass. Western authorities will change, their elites will get tired and beg for negotiations and a freeze on the conflict. Any counteroffensive will fizzle out. The dead will be buried, the wounds will be licked. But we must not stop until the current, inherently terrorist Ukrainian state is completely dismantled. It must be destroyed to the ground. Or rather, so that even the ashes from it did not remain. So that this abomination could never, under any circumstances, be reborn. If it takes years or even decades, then so be it. We have no choice: either we will destroy their hostile political regime, or the collective West will eventually tear Russia to pieces. And in this case, he will perish with us. Nobody needs this.

Therefore, the only way is the complete disposal of the state machine of a hostile country and absolute guarantees of loyalty for the future. They can only be given by Russia's control over everything that is happening and will happen in the territories of the former Bandera state. And we will achieve it.

t.me/medvedev_telegram/376 625.4K views Aug 19 at 08:13

As I’ve said repeatedly since April, 2022 - “I am on record”, as Andrei Martyanov likes to say - this is the only possible outcome for this conflict: total control of the territory of Ukraine - including western Ukraine - by Russia for all time going forward.

Further, Russia must install a new Military District in western Ukraine which may be the equivalent of the Western Military District (or here or here - PDF download) that currently exists. From the Center for Naval Analyses study “Russian Forces in the Western Military District” (linked above - the accuracy of which I can not vouch for and note that this report was from 2021 - before the current Russian military expansion) we have this “Summary of Russian Forces in the Western Military District”:

We can expect the new Military District to have much of the above, or at least enough to serve as a “tripwire” should NATO attempt a push from Poland and/or Romania into Ukraine and hence to Russia in some future conflict.

This District will no doubt include airbases with Sukhoi Su-34, Su-35S and Su-30MS jets, Kamov Ka-52, Mil Mi-28N, Mi-35, and Mi-MTV5 helicopters, and S-300, S-400, S-500, and Pantsir-S air defense systems. The air defense systems will be the primary purpose of the new Military District - to counter the Aegis Ashore installations NATO has installed in Poland and Romania (see below.) The District might also include MiG-31BM interceptor fighters, Sukhoi Su-24M frontline bombers, Mil Mi-8AMTSH, Mi-24 and Mi-26 helicopters. In particular, the MiG-31K - which is capable of carrying the Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic missile - will likely be based there.

It is also very likely that Iskander missile systems will be installed there. They are being installed in Belarus presently with the capability to use both conventional and nuclear warheads and I would expect the same to be provided to the new Military District.

Once Odessa has been returned to Russian control, we can expect Russia to install a naval base there to supplement the Sevastopol naval base in Crimea. That base is likely to be protected by “Ball” and “Bastion” anti-ship missile systems. The first include X-35 cruise missiles, the second - Onyx supersonic. The Black Sea Fleet of course has ships which can launch the long-range cruise missiles "Kalibre" as well as the new Zircon hypersonic missiles. These systems can attack the entire territory of Europe. The Black Sea will thus likely have an additional layered air defense system operating out of Odessa in addition to the one operating in Crimea, capable of hitting airborne targets out to a range of 400 kilometers.

Russia is increasing its military from 1.15 million men to 1.5 million men. At least 300,000 were raised in fall of 2022, plus another 70-odd thousand volunteers, plus another 200,000 in Russia’s regular conscription drives. I suspect these are not just going to sit around inside Russia’s pre-2022 borders. These increases are intended to counter the threat from NATO which is why new Military Districts were formed inside Russia’s pre-2022 border around Moscow and Leningrad. I suspect some of these new forces will be sent to control Ukraine and create a Military District in western Ukraine.

The reason why this Military District must be created in western Ukraine is clearly explained by this 2019 article in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists by Theodore A. Postol, professor emeritus of science, technology, and national security policy at MIT.

I quote from the article:

The Russians have repeatedly insisted that these dual-capability, Aegis-ashore installations constitute a violation of the offensive weapons range limitations set forth in the INF Treaty.

The American government argues that the Aegis-ashore installations pose no threat to Russia because computer software in the Polish and Romanian installations is not compatible with the launch of cruise missiles. The US State Department issued a very sharply stated rebuke of Russian concerns on December 8, 2017, claiming, “Specifically [emphasis added], the [Aegis ashore] system lacks the software, fire control hardware, support equipment, and other infrastructure needed to launch offensive ballistic or cruise missiles such as the Tomahawk.”

But the mechanical and electronic components installed in the Romanian and Polish Aegis ashore sites are unmodified from those installed on US Navy warships, which were designed from the beginning to simultaneously be able to launch cruise missiles as well as anti-air missiles.

To argue that the Aegis ashore system is not programmed to launch cruise missiles is no different than arguing that a workstation computer cannot read flash drives or information from video cameras. It is simply a false assertion that is incompatible with the engineering design of the system…

An upgraded Tomahawk with a nuclear warhead, if based at US Aegis sites in Eastern Europe, could be used to implement a near-zero warning nuclear strike on multiple Russian targets. This capability is what the Russian government fears. And rightly so, because the capability is far from theoretical. It is a capability the Aegis system was designed to accommodate.

The article is worth reading in its entirety as it explains the entire concept of the Aegis Ashore installations in great detail.

Another explanation of the situation is well described by former CIA analyst Ray McGovern in a talk given to the Community Church of Boston on April 25, 2023. Here it is and I recommend everyone view it:

If the Missile Fits, Beware: Ray McGovern on US missile site in Romania and Poland

In particular, he quotes Russian President Vladimir Putin’s specific statements clearly establishing Russia’s concern over these installations on several occasions prior to the 2022 invasion.

In my view, these installations represent two possible threats to Russia’s security:

1. They could be used as a “decapitation strike” against Russia’s leadership as part of a NATO “first strike”.

2. They could be used to compromise Russia’s ability to counter-strike in response to a NATO “first strike”.

in either scenario, Russia clearly has valid concerns about the presence of these weapons systems within 5-10 minutes operational range - should they be equipped with hypersonic missile systems in the future - of Moscow and Russia’s strategic systems. Coupled with NATO’s interest in building up Ukraine’s military since 2015 as well as increasing NATO’s “readiness” forces to 300,000 and arming Russia’s neighbors with the latest NATO weapons systems such as the F-35 fighter and Abrams tanks, this clearly demonstrated to Russia that the West has ever intention of conducting aggressive action against Russia going forward.

Russia was compelled to respond. Russia did. This is the Special Military Operation. It is intended to remove Ukraine from the board as ever again being a threat to Russian security. I believe it is also intended to be part of a general reorganization of Russian defense, essentially establishing a new “Iron Curtain 2.0” which will stretch from the Black Sea to the Arctic. This is intended to insure that the West will not be capable of conducting conventional ground attacks on Russia ever again. The West will be limited to using threats of nuclear weapons use - which the Russian advances in hypersonic weapons systems and air defense systems are well prepared to counter for the foreseeable future.

As I’ve said before, Russia has history with the West: WWI; WWII; and now Ukraine. Russia will never let the West threaten it again with a ground invasion.