Fascinating and a whole new crop of tidbits in the game of geopolitical ‘connect-a-dot’. Sadly this is grim news indeed for the Palestinians- especially those in Gaza. I understand that the IDF has already bulldozed a road dividing Gaza in two- with its eastern terminus at the soon to be built pier no doubt. This degree of skulduggery transcends the elected governments of USUKIS and must originate within the “Blob+” (add in MI6, Mossad & co, and the big money players in the Oil Patch) Can the Axis of Resistance muster up sufficient boots on the ground to bring these ghouls to heel? Let’s not forget that Al-Aqsa is being
Colonel Macgregor believes that some of the regional states will have to intervene. I suppose he thinks Hezbollah, even with support from Iraqi and Syrian militias and the Houthis, will not be able to prevail over Israel AND the US - although I think Hezbollah alone could defeat Israel alone if the US stayed out of it.
There are reportedly between 45,000 and 150,000 militia members in Syria, commanded by either local Syrian officers or Iranian officers, with the most likely number being 60,000, located across Syria in at least 55 military bases. How many of those could join with Hezbollah in the Golan heights region or cross over into Lebanon to reinforce Hezbollah is unknown. Hezbollah itself has 100,000 in Lebanon and could probably raise more on short notice or over a months-long war.
I would expect if the war widens to Lebanon that it must inevitably involve Syria, so add Syria's military to the mix. Syria has 170,000 troops with 50,000 reserve and 50,000 paramilitary, and over 1,700 tanks and 1,500 towed artillery.
So right away you're looking at nearly the size of the fully mobilized Israeli army if you combine Hezbollah, the Syrian militias, and the Syrian military.
The big problem for the US is that it almost certainly can NOT put enough of its own troops on the ground to counter those numbers even in addition to Israel. It will have to rely on air power - as usual. But once Syria is involved, Russia and at least Iran (what they can spare anyway) will be supplying further air defenses which will take a toll on US and Israeli aircraft.
The next step will be for the neocons to expand the war to Iran - and that's when all bets are off. Iran has 500-750 missiles with the range to hit Israel and thousands more that can hit US bases in the region. Add that destruction to what Hezbollah can do to Israeli infrastructure and its economy with their 100-150,000 rockets and missiles and drones. Then add in the Iraqi militias and their missiles already hitting Haifa regularly.
The second big problem for the US is logistics. Having shipped so much to Israel will probably prevent the US from being able to conduct a long war throughout the region without dangerously drawing down its stocks of weapons. As it discovered in Ukraine, it has no "surge capability" to produce more.
It's going to be a big mess for Israel and the US. I firmly believe it will be the end of Israel as a functioning state - just like Ukraine.
RSH - your reply makes me want to bow down a la Wayne’s World - “I AM NOT WORTHY!!” I am quite grateful and a bit overwhelmed by your eagle eye overview- you sure don’t miss much (if anything). In short, you’re pretty much “preaching to the choir” here - I agree that Israel and its Hegemonic cronies will be hard-pressed to muster enough boots - never mind ordnance and even gunpowder (!). Air support needs to be based in the neighborhood- carrier based is so 20th century - a few visits from “Cousin Khinzal” will level (or badly “perforate”) the playing field and I wouldn’t doubt that S-400 AD systems could be effectively upgraded without much delay if need be. My biggest “known unknown” is the MOTU behind the oil patch players- mega bankers, shipping magnates and commodity traders in Switzerland etc. what hidden cards might they possibly play? My biggest “known” concern is that the usual suspects in the Blob are sure to be sore losers and may try a nuclear option (hopefully “just tactical”). I pray that it could be‘contained’ but I just don’t know. “The future’s uncertain and the end is always near” (said the son of an Admiral) So it goes……..☮️ 🏳️
I take bows but pledges to subscribe once I turn on paid subscriptions are better. :-) But for that, I have to increase my frequency.
As for the MOTU, I think they usually start trouble somewhere else to distract from their failures. The Middle East is a distraction from Ukraine, and when that fails, it will be Taiwan. The important thing for them is to keep chaos constantly going on. That's what sustains their power, both economic and geopolitical.
As for nukes, the only two ways that happens is:
1) someone convinces Biden to send a tactical nuke to Ukraine - which Ukraine can't use and you'd need more than one anyway in a dispersed long-front war like this one; but even with one you could blame Russia for it; the problem with THAT is that the nuclear signature will prove it's not a Russian nuke - unless the CIA has a Russian "suitcase nuke" hidden away somewhere - but if so, why haven't they used it already, back when they were talking about such things around the nuclear power plants? So I view that whole scenario as unlikely;
or 2) they convince Israel to use at least one nuke either against Hezbollah (unlikely due to fallout risks to Israel) or on Iran once it's clear Israel is losing the war. The problem with that of course is that Russia won't allow it. Russia undoubtedly knows where Israel's missiles are located and can shut the bunkers down with Kinzhals or Zircons with conventional warheads. That still leaves Israeli subs with nuke warheads on cruise missiles, however. What is certain is that if Israel uses a nuke against a non-nuke country, the whole world via the UNSC will come down on Israel (except the US, but even the US will have to abstain from vetoing that vote.) But Israel is where I see a nuke use risk.
Concur that the greatest nuke risk is with Israel- there’s plenty of messianic “light bulbs” running around especially in the West Bank. I used to live in Brooklyn where I literally rubbed elbows and even occasionally worked for various Hasidic Congregations. Many have emigrated to Israel to settle and mow the lawn in Palestinian lands. One sect - the Lubavitchers - have an especially radical faction that believes that their (now deceased) Grand Rebbe Menachem Schneerson is the “Moshiach” (Messiah). Between them and the indigenous Haredim who are similarly Ultra Orthodox there is considerable resentment from more secular Israelis because of their religious exemption from military service. I was there in the early’90s and saw how high school seniors (both sexes) are also starting their first year of compulsory military service. Most eventually become Reservists but it seemed at the time that they had an ample complement of combat ready troops. There was grumbling amongst the trainees that the Orthodox minority in the Knesset (about 10% at the time) had managed to swing the vote to suspend public transport on the Sabbath, requiring many to hitchhike back home from where ever they were stationed if their four day shift ended or started on a Saturday. The West Bank hotheads may claim rabbinical privileges, but they don’t seem shy about using weapons on the Palestinian untermenschen. The subsidized temporary housing they are taking advantage of won’t last much longer even with their “muscle” in the Knesset. Interesting times ahead- I’m knocking on wood more and more. I look forward to your figuring out a subscription model that works with a perhaps sporadic amount of essay contribution. Perhaps a chat forum similar to MoA with specific topic threads and editorial content lifted from your gleanings - perhaps like Naked Capitalism’s ‘Links ‘ feature - whatever floats your boat. May success attend your efforts!
thanks richard.. interesting speculation.. i think you are right too.. the usa has sworn fealty to israeland like a pack with the devil, there is no getting out of it.. israel is going to be the usa’s waterloo.. at some point in time historians will look back and make up all sorts of stories for its justification.. meanwhile the gates of hell continue to open..
Brilliant
Fascinating and a whole new crop of tidbits in the game of geopolitical ‘connect-a-dot’. Sadly this is grim news indeed for the Palestinians- especially those in Gaza. I understand that the IDF has already bulldozed a road dividing Gaza in two- with its eastern terminus at the soon to be built pier no doubt. This degree of skulduggery transcends the elected governments of USUKIS and must originate within the “Blob+” (add in MI6, Mossad & co, and the big money players in the Oil Patch) Can the Axis of Resistance muster up sufficient boots on the ground to bring these ghouls to heel? Let’s not forget that Al-Aqsa is being
grrr…. Blockadedas well ( just in time for Ramadan, naturally). Tough times ahead, for sure. Thanks Richard for a timely and incisive post!
Colonel Macgregor believes that some of the regional states will have to intervene. I suppose he thinks Hezbollah, even with support from Iraqi and Syrian militias and the Houthis, will not be able to prevail over Israel AND the US - although I think Hezbollah alone could defeat Israel alone if the US stayed out of it.
There are reportedly between 45,000 and 150,000 militia members in Syria, commanded by either local Syrian officers or Iranian officers, with the most likely number being 60,000, located across Syria in at least 55 military bases. How many of those could join with Hezbollah in the Golan heights region or cross over into Lebanon to reinforce Hezbollah is unknown. Hezbollah itself has 100,000 in Lebanon and could probably raise more on short notice or over a months-long war.
I would expect if the war widens to Lebanon that it must inevitably involve Syria, so add Syria's military to the mix. Syria has 170,000 troops with 50,000 reserve and 50,000 paramilitary, and over 1,700 tanks and 1,500 towed artillery.
So right away you're looking at nearly the size of the fully mobilized Israeli army if you combine Hezbollah, the Syrian militias, and the Syrian military.
The big problem for the US is that it almost certainly can NOT put enough of its own troops on the ground to counter those numbers even in addition to Israel. It will have to rely on air power - as usual. But once Syria is involved, Russia and at least Iran (what they can spare anyway) will be supplying further air defenses which will take a toll on US and Israeli aircraft.
The next step will be for the neocons to expand the war to Iran - and that's when all bets are off. Iran has 500-750 missiles with the range to hit Israel and thousands more that can hit US bases in the region. Add that destruction to what Hezbollah can do to Israeli infrastructure and its economy with their 100-150,000 rockets and missiles and drones. Then add in the Iraqi militias and their missiles already hitting Haifa regularly.
The second big problem for the US is logistics. Having shipped so much to Israel will probably prevent the US from being able to conduct a long war throughout the region without dangerously drawing down its stocks of weapons. As it discovered in Ukraine, it has no "surge capability" to produce more.
It's going to be a big mess for Israel and the US. I firmly believe it will be the end of Israel as a functioning state - just like Ukraine.
RSH - your reply makes me want to bow down a la Wayne’s World - “I AM NOT WORTHY!!” I am quite grateful and a bit overwhelmed by your eagle eye overview- you sure don’t miss much (if anything). In short, you’re pretty much “preaching to the choir” here - I agree that Israel and its Hegemonic cronies will be hard-pressed to muster enough boots - never mind ordnance and even gunpowder (!). Air support needs to be based in the neighborhood- carrier based is so 20th century - a few visits from “Cousin Khinzal” will level (or badly “perforate”) the playing field and I wouldn’t doubt that S-400 AD systems could be effectively upgraded without much delay if need be. My biggest “known unknown” is the MOTU behind the oil patch players- mega bankers, shipping magnates and commodity traders in Switzerland etc. what hidden cards might they possibly play? My biggest “known” concern is that the usual suspects in the Blob are sure to be sore losers and may try a nuclear option (hopefully “just tactical”). I pray that it could be‘contained’ but I just don’t know. “The future’s uncertain and the end is always near” (said the son of an Admiral) So it goes……..☮️ 🏳️
I take bows but pledges to subscribe once I turn on paid subscriptions are better. :-) But for that, I have to increase my frequency.
As for the MOTU, I think they usually start trouble somewhere else to distract from their failures. The Middle East is a distraction from Ukraine, and when that fails, it will be Taiwan. The important thing for them is to keep chaos constantly going on. That's what sustains their power, both economic and geopolitical.
As for nukes, the only two ways that happens is:
1) someone convinces Biden to send a tactical nuke to Ukraine - which Ukraine can't use and you'd need more than one anyway in a dispersed long-front war like this one; but even with one you could blame Russia for it; the problem with THAT is that the nuclear signature will prove it's not a Russian nuke - unless the CIA has a Russian "suitcase nuke" hidden away somewhere - but if so, why haven't they used it already, back when they were talking about such things around the nuclear power plants? So I view that whole scenario as unlikely;
or 2) they convince Israel to use at least one nuke either against Hezbollah (unlikely due to fallout risks to Israel) or on Iran once it's clear Israel is losing the war. The problem with that of course is that Russia won't allow it. Russia undoubtedly knows where Israel's missiles are located and can shut the bunkers down with Kinzhals or Zircons with conventional warheads. That still leaves Israeli subs with nuke warheads on cruise missiles, however. What is certain is that if Israel uses a nuke against a non-nuke country, the whole world via the UNSC will come down on Israel (except the US, but even the US will have to abstain from vetoing that vote.) But Israel is where I see a nuke use risk.
Best one can say is: we'll see.
Concur that the greatest nuke risk is with Israel- there’s plenty of messianic “light bulbs” running around especially in the West Bank. I used to live in Brooklyn where I literally rubbed elbows and even occasionally worked for various Hasidic Congregations. Many have emigrated to Israel to settle and mow the lawn in Palestinian lands. One sect - the Lubavitchers - have an especially radical faction that believes that their (now deceased) Grand Rebbe Menachem Schneerson is the “Moshiach” (Messiah). Between them and the indigenous Haredim who are similarly Ultra Orthodox there is considerable resentment from more secular Israelis because of their religious exemption from military service. I was there in the early’90s and saw how high school seniors (both sexes) are also starting their first year of compulsory military service. Most eventually become Reservists but it seemed at the time that they had an ample complement of combat ready troops. There was grumbling amongst the trainees that the Orthodox minority in the Knesset (about 10% at the time) had managed to swing the vote to suspend public transport on the Sabbath, requiring many to hitchhike back home from where ever they were stationed if their four day shift ended or started on a Saturday. The West Bank hotheads may claim rabbinical privileges, but they don’t seem shy about using weapons on the Palestinian untermenschen. The subsidized temporary housing they are taking advantage of won’t last much longer even with their “muscle” in the Knesset. Interesting times ahead- I’m knocking on wood more and more. I look forward to your figuring out a subscription model that works with a perhaps sporadic amount of essay contribution. Perhaps a chat forum similar to MoA with specific topic threads and editorial content lifted from your gleanings - perhaps like Naked Capitalism’s ‘Links ‘ feature - whatever floats your boat. May success attend your efforts!
thanks richard.. interesting speculation.. i think you are right too.. the usa has sworn fealty to israeland like a pack with the devil, there is no getting out of it.. israel is going to be the usa’s waterloo.. at some point in time historians will look back and make up all sorts of stories for its justification.. meanwhile the gates of hell continue to open..
Could be - cheers Richard.