Very succinct as usual Richard. Which ever way one looks at it, the conclusion is the same - it is simply unsustainable and morally repugnant. Unfortunately just par for the course for the inbred scum that constitutes the political and economic elite and their lackeys that rules 'the West'. When times get tough in the next few years we should revisit a slogan that became popular here in the late 80s: 'Eat the Rich' ;o)
FYI
R. MOD report 11th July ended with the accumulated equipment losses since Feb '22;
"In total, 455 airplanes and 241 helicopters, 4,966 unmanned aerial vehicles, 426 air defence missile systems, 10,649 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,137 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 5,413 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 11,592 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation."
Yesterday's report ended;
"In total, 457 (2) airplanes, 244 (3) helicopters, 5,271 (305) unmanned aerial vehicles, 426 air defence missile systems, 10,942 (293) tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,139 (2) fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 5,624 (209) field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 11,906 (314) special military motor vehicles have been destroyed during the special military operation."
Total losses of materiel since 4th June appears in brackets.
Thanks for the equipment list. I usually don't bother counting those, although other people do. But the day-to-day increase is impressive. It's indicative of the higher tempo of operations on both sides, which plays to the Russians' strength. As that former NATO commander said in a speech to Swedish forces, the scale of this exceeds anything the West has ever seen since WWII (and possibly Korea).
I thought it might be a useful adjunct to the extrapolation of personnel loses you propose. Mercouris also mentioned an ex-military person from the USA having contacted him to say that NATO/West are not prepared or trained for the sort of war going on in Ukraine.
PS there is a Duran episode with Sy Hersch that provides some information that would fit nicely into your article that shows CIA involvement in Ukraine since the 1940s. Specifically WRT America's attitudes to Poland and Russian Federation WRT and economic assistance circa 1992.
All that commenting on Simplicius' Lyceum has drawn me in to check out your writings. This is the first one I checked and it seems good. I like the math. The prediction at the end seems to have been off (I'm from the future so I know these things xD ). It may be that Ukraine had the "latter" number of troops, which means the time-to-run-out was 9 months, so the time-to-collapse would be 4.5 months. This post was written in mid-July 2023, so 4.5 months from then is early-December. Perhaps there is some space where we can say Russia is making advancements in specific areas. But not yet, really. It seems that either Ukraine is able to mobilize more people than you expected or Russia isn't killing/wounding quite so many Ukrainians after all. It's probably the former.
The problem for Ukraine is that they can't mobilize trained soldiers. All they can mobilize is pregnant women and 50-75-year-olds. Sure, they can fire an AK. But the main reason Russia is holding back is because of the remaining fortifications, primarily Advivka. Assaults on fortifications are costly. Russia is in no hurry.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has lost all combat and operational effectiveness. Nothing they do is effective. This is why they're falling back on "defense". But as others have pointed out, you can't defend with hastily raised fortifications which are a fraction of what Ukraine built over eight years in Donbass, and you can't defend with pregnant women.
Martyanov has pointed out that Russia is building heavy artillery brigades - brigades loaded with things like the Pion 203mm self-propelled gun. He says the only reason for that is preparation for a Russian offensive. So it's coming. And when it does, Ukraine has nothing which will stop it.
People like Ritter believe Ukraine is basically within a couple months of collapse. That fits with my time line. Simplicius notion that this will drag on for two more years is delusional.
I watching. Actually I wanted to see the comments.
Very succinct as usual Richard. Which ever way one looks at it, the conclusion is the same - it is simply unsustainable and morally repugnant. Unfortunately just par for the course for the inbred scum that constitutes the political and economic elite and their lackeys that rules 'the West'. When times get tough in the next few years we should revisit a slogan that became popular here in the late 80s: 'Eat the Rich' ;o)
FYI
R. MOD report 11th July ended with the accumulated equipment losses since Feb '22;
"In total, 455 airplanes and 241 helicopters, 4,966 unmanned aerial vehicles, 426 air defence missile systems, 10,649 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,137 combat vehicles equipped with MLRS, 5,413 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 11,592 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation."
Yesterday's report ended;
"In total, 457 (2) airplanes, 244 (3) helicopters, 5,271 (305) unmanned aerial vehicles, 426 air defence missile systems, 10,942 (293) tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 1,139 (2) fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 5,624 (209) field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 11,906 (314) special military motor vehicles have been destroyed during the special military operation."
Total losses of materiel since 4th June appears in brackets.
Thanks for the equipment list. I usually don't bother counting those, although other people do. But the day-to-day increase is impressive. It's indicative of the higher tempo of operations on both sides, which plays to the Russians' strength. As that former NATO commander said in a speech to Swedish forces, the scale of this exceeds anything the West has ever seen since WWII (and possibly Korea).
I thought it might be a useful adjunct to the extrapolation of personnel loses you propose. Mercouris also mentioned an ex-military person from the USA having contacted him to say that NATO/West are not prepared or trained for the sort of war going on in Ukraine.
PS there is a Duran episode with Sy Hersch that provides some information that would fit nicely into your article that shows CIA involvement in Ukraine since the 1940s. Specifically WRT America's attitudes to Poland and Russian Federation WRT and economic assistance circa 1992.
Oops its Hersh not Hersch
actually it was J Sachs! Sorry, all you Yanks look the same to me :oD LOL!!!!!
All that commenting on Simplicius' Lyceum has drawn me in to check out your writings. This is the first one I checked and it seems good. I like the math. The prediction at the end seems to have been off (I'm from the future so I know these things xD ). It may be that Ukraine had the "latter" number of troops, which means the time-to-run-out was 9 months, so the time-to-collapse would be 4.5 months. This post was written in mid-July 2023, so 4.5 months from then is early-December. Perhaps there is some space where we can say Russia is making advancements in specific areas. But not yet, really. It seems that either Ukraine is able to mobilize more people than you expected or Russia isn't killing/wounding quite so many Ukrainians after all. It's probably the former.
The problem for Ukraine is that they can't mobilize trained soldiers. All they can mobilize is pregnant women and 50-75-year-olds. Sure, they can fire an AK. But the main reason Russia is holding back is because of the remaining fortifications, primarily Advivka. Assaults on fortifications are costly. Russia is in no hurry.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has lost all combat and operational effectiveness. Nothing they do is effective. This is why they're falling back on "defense". But as others have pointed out, you can't defend with hastily raised fortifications which are a fraction of what Ukraine built over eight years in Donbass, and you can't defend with pregnant women.
Martyanov has pointed out that Russia is building heavy artillery brigades - brigades loaded with things like the Pion 203mm self-propelled gun. He says the only reason for that is preparation for a Russian offensive. So it's coming. And when it does, Ukraine has nothing which will stop it.
People like Ritter believe Ukraine is basically within a couple months of collapse. That fits with my time line. Simplicius notion that this will drag on for two more years is delusional.