One point I'd make is that despite long range strikes, the majority of losses will come from the teeth arms of the infantry, armour , recce and combat engineers. These troops rarely make up 50% of any unit, and a lower percentage of any military as a whole. So a unit losing even 25% of its total strength is likely to be less than 50% combat effective and so on. You don't have to cause 100% casualties to cause a unit to become incapable. And it may well be that the Ukraine is approaching that point, albeit as you know I take a more sanguine view of this. However if it carries on like this it will lose its ability to attack on any sort of scale or to plug holes with a mobile reserve. This will be endgame territory. It might therefore be no surprise that the USA is now trying to promote peace talks. Good luck with that...
thanks richard.. good work.. i can see this conflict stretching out longer, but aside from that - i am in agreement with you.. on the other hand, i see the wisdom in marcjfs commentary too, so maybe this will fold sooner.. i would like that..
From the Russian army perspective, this has been largely a stand-off war with Russia inflicting heavy casualties on Ukraine with missiles, drones, artillery, and mine fields, and few Russian casualties...The high casualty urban combat in Bakhmut was done by the Wagner mercs and very effectively..Ukraine having lost its air force and discovered that Western tanks and Bradleys are ineffective and easily reduced to scrap metal, Russia is continuing its long range attacks on both the military and Ukraine's economy, apparently waiting for Ukraine to collapse...which could be any time now..While the US now wants to pivot away from this mess so it can focus on China...
Good post RichardSteven. Thanks James for the link to here. I'm having the same issues with Moa trolls, feel bad for b.
Mercouris had an interesting comment toward the end of his post today, said there are talks between US/West and Russia but won't go anywhere, mostly because Biden is trapped and blackmailed by his own greedy, diabolical handling of Ukraine when Obama picked him to be "viceroy". The neocons have him pinned down at home and the Ukie kleptocrats have so much dirt on him, and then the Nazis have the Ukie money people in their sights if Zelensky looks like he's getting ready to flee or betray them. I agree with your overall assessment RSH: collapse is coming by Christmas. Won't be pretty but the way the Russians handled Chechnya gives me hope.
Some commentators have been saying that the conflict will last another year and having viewed the daily Russian MoD 'clobber reports' for over a year I just can't see it. In recent months, especially, Ukrainian losses in men and materiel have been staggering. I think it was MacGregor who said that we are witnessing the rare event of an army disintegrating in the field. These stats appear to confirm that - thanks Richard.
One point I'd make is that despite long range strikes, the majority of losses will come from the teeth arms of the infantry, armour , recce and combat engineers. These troops rarely make up 50% of any unit, and a lower percentage of any military as a whole. So a unit losing even 25% of its total strength is likely to be less than 50% combat effective and so on. You don't have to cause 100% casualties to cause a unit to become incapable. And it may well be that the Ukraine is approaching that point, albeit as you know I take a more sanguine view of this. However if it carries on like this it will lose its ability to attack on any sort of scale or to plug holes with a mobile reserve. This will be endgame territory. It might therefore be no surprise that the USA is now trying to promote peace talks. Good luck with that...
thanks richard.. good work.. i can see this conflict stretching out longer, but aside from that - i am in agreement with you.. on the other hand, i see the wisdom in marcjfs commentary too, so maybe this will fold sooner.. i would like that..
Give the man a cigar! ( I too am a long-time MoA lurker too far out of my pay grade to comment ) Mighty glad to see RSH with a zone of his own!
From the Russian army perspective, this has been largely a stand-off war with Russia inflicting heavy casualties on Ukraine with missiles, drones, artillery, and mine fields, and few Russian casualties...The high casualty urban combat in Bakhmut was done by the Wagner mercs and very effectively..Ukraine having lost its air force and discovered that Western tanks and Bradleys are ineffective and easily reduced to scrap metal, Russia is continuing its long range attacks on both the military and Ukraine's economy, apparently waiting for Ukraine to collapse...which could be any time now..While the US now wants to pivot away from this mess so it can focus on China...
Good post RichardSteven. Thanks James for the link to here. I'm having the same issues with Moa trolls, feel bad for b.
Mercouris had an interesting comment toward the end of his post today, said there are talks between US/West and Russia but won't go anywhere, mostly because Biden is trapped and blackmailed by his own greedy, diabolical handling of Ukraine when Obama picked him to be "viceroy". The neocons have him pinned down at home and the Ukie kleptocrats have so much dirt on him, and then the Nazis have the Ukie money people in their sights if Zelensky looks like he's getting ready to flee or betray them. I agree with your overall assessment RSH: collapse is coming by Christmas. Won't be pretty but the way the Russians handled Chechnya gives me hope.
Some commentators have been saying that the conflict will last another year and having viewed the daily Russian MoD 'clobber reports' for over a year I just can't see it. In recent months, especially, Ukrainian losses in men and materiel have been staggering. I think it was MacGregor who said that we are witnessing the rare event of an army disintegrating in the field. These stats appear to confirm that - thanks Richard.