Response to Karl Sanchez' "Update on 'Pepe's Nuke'"

Wherein I try to identify Pepe's "Big Power"...

This is a response to Karl Sanchez’ “Update on ‘Pepe’s Nuke” Substack post. This was a very good read by Karl who updates the report by Pepe Escobar, the well-known geopolitical analyst and journalist, who reported on X/Twitter that an Israeli F-35 fighter jet armed with a nuclear weapon was shot down by Russia on its way to Iran.

Here is the problem with all of this: Over what country was the F-35 shot down? You would think this would be an obvious point that would be conveyed in the intel. Planes come down on actual sovereign territory, assuming it was not shot down over the Med or some other large body of water. More on that below.

Because without knowing that, no one knows anything.

Look at the freakin' map. If the F-35 was shot down upon leaving Jordan, there are only four countries over which it can fly: Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. If it went north, add Turkey. All of those countries have air defenses that could have shot down the plane. Also, the implication is it was shot down SHORTLY after leaving Jordan.

The shortest distance between Israel and Iran is Iraq or Saudi Arabia. Iraq wouldn't shoot it down in my opinion if Iraq even has the capability. The Saudis have the US-supplied air defenses but who knows if they were on alert or would have US permission. Given that the Saudis helped down Iranian drones during the Iran attack on Israel, I doubt the Saudis would want to unilaterally shoot down on Israeli F-35 and the US certainly wouldn't allow them to use Patriot air defenses to do so.

In any event, it is claimed the Russians did it. Well, the Russians only have assets capable of shooting down planes in Syria and from their naval assets in the eastern Med. So the plane came down in Syria or the Med. The Russians would not be shooting down planes over Turkey or Saudi Arabia or Iraq. Maybe Lebanon from Syria. But over Syria - yes. Q.E.D.

You might ask, "Well, why would Israel fly over Syria?" Well, they've been attacking Syria regularly from F-35's, although it's usually done from the Med or from over Lebanon. So no one would particularly care other than the Syrians, of course, who almost never fire on the planes and who have not been given the green light by the Russians to do so using Russian air defenses which are there primarily to defend the Russian assets, not Syria.

If it came down in Syria, obviously the Russians would be on it like white on rice. Even the Syrians might not know anything. But they probably would and then it could be passed on. But the Russians would completely destroy the evidence, including the nuke. Also convenient. But if the "Big Power" Pepe refers to has its own satellites and SIGINT in the region, it would also know.

Flying over Syria would mean the US, China, Turkey, and most countries with significant radar and SIGINT capability would know the plane was shot-down - unless the Israeli F-35 was flown in a very stealthy manner. Going out of the Med would probably be the best route then. It would be seen by the US, NATO (including Turkey) and Russian navies but probably by few other countries. And that would depend on how alert their long-range surveillance was at the time.

The Russians could use their two S-400 air defense systems located at Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia Governorate and a second S-400 unit northwest of Masyaf, Hama Governorate. The standard missile range is 240km or 150 miles. The distance between Damascus and Tel Aviv is only 133 miles, so the S-400 could easily shoot down an Israeli plane anywhere within that range.

Or the Russians could use one of their jet fighters. They have several Su-35 air-to-air fighters in Syria which have been involved in close approaches to US aircraft around the US Al-Tanf base in Syria. They have also been involved in interceptions of Israeli aircraft on several occasions in the past. See here.

If the plane came down in the Med, that solves the "loose nuke" problem Scott Ritter talks about. It's deep in the ocean and there is zero evidence to support the claim of the shoot-down. Convenient, one might say. Someone mentioned the 1966 Palomares B-52 crash to me the other day. That is illustrative of what can happen.

So my guess is the F-35 went out over the Med instead just to avoid the Syrian complication. Or they went into Syria and encountered Russian Su-35 aircraft which either intercepted them once their destination was determined (i.e., they weren't attacking Syrian facilities) or from intel about their combat load. Or they were shot down by Russian S-400 air defenses under the same circumstances. The Russians KNEW one way or the other that this was an attack on Iran with a serious payload.

But Syria is NOT a "Big Power" and it is alleged in the story that the "Big Power" got the intel on its own hook and was NOT told by Russia or anyone else in the region.

"the Big Power gained their intelligence firsthand - and that it was not transmitted to them by the Russians, Iranians or other direct parties to the hot war in West Asia."

That leaves Turkey and China. I think we can safely dismiss the US as a source. I also dismiss Saudi Arabia as a “Big Power”. They are only a “power” in the region and the use of the phrase “Big Power” implies a multi-regional power if not a “superpower.”

Does Turkey count as a "party to the hot war"? Well, it does if you count Syria and Erdogan''s bitching about the Israeli genocide. So in my view that leaves Turkey out. It’s also not clear that Turkey is a “multi-regional power” despite it’s being a NATO member.

Therefore the "Big Power" is China. Q.E.D.

They have satellites, they have SIGINT from their naval assets in the region, and they probably have ground intel in the region, possibly including inside Israel. Naked Capitalism revealed from a Russian source map in December that:

The Russian source map is now reporting that the Chinese Navy’s 45th Escort Task Force, comprising the Type-052 destroyer Urumqi, the Type-547 frigate Linyi, and supply ship Dongpinghu were at berth at the Chinese base at Djibouti as of Wednesday, December 20.

See here about that "Chinese base" in Djibouti: People's Liberation Army Support Base in Djibouti

There's your Chinese intel source. There's no doubt that base has full SIGINT intelligence capabilities that are China's main source of information about what's going on in the region. Again, Q.E.D.

They would, along with Chinese satellites, have seen and intercepted everything happening over the region, including the Med and Syria. They would have seen and heard (via SIGINT) that F-35, the Russian response and would have deduced what happened for the same reasons as the Russians, i.e., that F-35 was not attacking Lebanon or Syria - it was headed for Iran. What China might not know at the time is what it was armed with or what the type of attack - an EMP - it was. But it could have intercepted that information as a result of the shoot-down and the Russian response or it could have determined it beforehand with SIGINT intercepts of Israeli traffic.

I do find it difficult to believe that China was not informed by Russia afterward about shooting down an Israeli nuclear-armed F-35. Perhaps China knew from its own intel and did not need to be informed. Perhaps this detail of the intel is just wrong or is used to, as Pepe says, cover the trail.

So I think we can conclude that Pepe's "Big Power" source is none other than China. Someone in China passed their intel to a third party who contacted Pepe, probably for exactly the reason Pepe says: to obscure the trail. China would want to keep its comprehensive surveillance of the Israel "hot spot" somewhat under wraps and passing the intel on through a third party would help do that. China obviously would agree with Russia that the incident should be hushed up, but at the same time leaking the information out would put pressure on the US and Israel that their plan to nuke Iran was known by parties other than those directly involved.

I also suspect that the three main powers have had back-channel conversations about this incident. With the US and Israel potentially exposed as willing participants in a nuclear (or EMP) strike on a non-nuclear nation, it gives Russia and China a lot of leverage in the geopolitical space. While the US and Israel would have been exposed had the attack succeeded, having it fail by Russian action is seriously deleterious to US and Israeli posture and threatens to upend the apple cart if that gets out in the mainstream press.

If it indeed happened. Which will probably never be known for sure or at least not for decades like the Palomares incident. My personal opinion at this point is that this incident is quite plausible but all we have at the moment is one “unidentified” nation’s word and not much else.

Stay tuned.