Hm, interesting take on the flight routes. - If we view flight times along the routes, we'd get some estimate (however long exactly) of the time during which a shootdown must have been executed; that is, from the ready intel picture that allows to recognize what's going on, to giving the order to scramble/radar-paint (up and down the chain of command), to then - what? Fire a missile from 200 miles into the sky against a stealth target? Without visual confirmation? Based on rumours of Israeli intent? - Assume however you did pull the trigger. Then, no immediate NOTAM for all traffic in the vicinity to get the hell out of dodge? phew.
Alas. Let's see for the reversed conclusion. Assume that the kill chain has been by whatever means prepared well enough to allow targeting the lone F-35 along its attack vector. If you know *that* certain what Nutty's up to, you might just as well tell him to forget about it, basically threatening him with a no fly zone of whatever extension. The russians would have escalation dominance, so no getting behind it when Khmeimim serves up the pilmeni, hm?
Let me say, it doesn't appear very credible, and I for one am not quite convinced of the tale in light of the considerations above. However, please consider that my view on this is given without any actual expertise in all the minutiae involved, so take grain of salt as you see fit.
Not saying there aren't complications with the scenario. But in the absence of further details, speculation is all there is.
Clearing the obvious away - there won't be a NOTAM if a nuke is involved, especially on a time-sensitive reaction. They know the nuke isn't going off, nukes don't go off unless armed and they aren't armed until launched AFAIK. So there was no threat to aircraft over Syria or the Med.
It depends on whether Russia KNEW there was a nuke on board (if not what it was to be used for.) If it didn't know until, as I suggested, it saw the F-35 was actually over Syrian airspace (or the Med) and NOT attacking Syrian targets, there would be a certain amount of time to place a quick call to whoever - or the local commander could simply have made the call himself based on some standing orders of unknown content.
A Russian S-400 connected to a Russian AWACs equivalent would not need visual confirmation - especially if they already knew the payload. And of course an Su-35 already in the air could be quickly rerouted to fire a long-range missile or acquire visual. So that depends on the attack method - of which we know nothing.
The more I think about it, I'm partial to the Russians having known IN ADVANCE that the Israelis were going to do this. I'm betting they have the Israeli government thoroughly penetrated at the highest levels. Israel is full of ex-Russians; gotta be a spy in there somewhere.
As to why they wouldn't just call Nutty, there are possibilities: 1) no time - they didn't get the word until the plane was in or about to be in the air, and/or 2) they couldn't count on Nutty's cooperation - or even count on getting hold of the Israeli deconfliction phone line and then getting Nutty to answer.
After all an Israeli nuke strike is a big deal - Nutty wouldn't have done it without conviction. Russia could have threatened (non-nuclear) retaliation but Nutty could dismiss that if it wasn't framed aggressively enough. And then there's the problem a US response to that which Nutty would be counting on, especially if the US knew he was going to do this and had signed off on it.
And yes, I think Biden and the neocons would have signed off on it, regardless of what the MSM is blathering about a "rift" between the US and Israel. That's all utter BS.
So your speculation is as good as anyone else's, absent any further details of the event. At least you're thinking about it. But anything any of us can come up with can be countered by some other speculation.
So it remains plausible - and that's all it is so far.
my impression, and don't ask me why i say this - was that the f 35 was shot down over jordan.. and yes, my impression has all along been that china is the big power... but until more comes out, it is all mute..
Yup. Without details and with an active coverup if it did happen, this goes nowhere.
Not sure about Jordan. Pepe's original posts says: 'As the Israeli F-35 was leaving Jordanian airspace..." This implies right on the border with either Syria or Saudi Arabia or Lebanon While it's possible that Russia would shoot down a plan over the border inside Saudi Arabia, the probability is much higher that it was Syria. I'm not sure Israel would want to risk a Saudi intercept, whereas they're used to attacking Syria albeit usually from the Med or Lebanon.
If the plane was heading into Lebanon - which would make some sense as cover for suggesting an attack on Syria or Lebanon itself - it would likely mean it was heading for the Med. If the Russians had advance knowledge of the payload, they could have hit it as it passed over Lebanon and then it crashed in the Med. That's the only scenario that fits everything.
Although I don't know why they would be heading north into the Med. The one concept I can think of would be to go around between the Syrian and Turkish border through northern Iraq to Iran. Seems risky to me as well, since they probably didn't have either Turkish or Iraqi permission and would be at risk all the way. Whereas through Syria they would not likely be attacked by anyone and in Iraq if they went through Kurdish territory they would avoid Iraq air defenses if there are any capable of shooting down an F-35. So maybe tracing the border would be the smart move. It would confuse the air defense commands of each country by doing that as well, and both Turkey and Iraq would be under US pressure and Syria has minimal air defense as has been demonstrated before.
There's one big positive having it crash in Jordan. Jordan is under US and Israeli control, so cleaning up the mess would be easier. If it crashed in the Med, it's gone. If it crashed in Syria, the Russians would clean it up. Anywhere else would risk evidence of the event.
So that could be how it went. Ain't speculation grand?
if it was headed to iran, the most obvious direction is thru iraq to iran, via jordan.. it wouldn't be headed to lebannon, or syria or the med.. however, anything is possible and as you note - ain't speculation grand! i still think jordan if it was going to happen anywhere... jordan is a toadie for the usa-israel..
But as I said, heading to the Med via Lebanon makes great sense if you're trying to disguise the purpose of the flight. Israel is all over Lebanon and does strikes against Syria from there and from the Med. So heading for the Med isn't going to trigger any particular reaction by anyone other than surveillance.
Then you turn your plane right and follow the border between Turkey and Syria which neither of which are likely to launch against you, and that takes you right to northern Iraq where your friends, the Kurds, are and then you do your thing either from Iraq or inside Iran (probably the former if you're using some sort of missile rather than a gravity bomb and want to avoid Iranian S-300/400 air defense - although they probably cover Iraq anyway.)
Going the obvious direction can look like attacking Syria, which is fine, but as I also pointed out, once you're past western Syria you're telegraphing an attack against Iran.
Of course Jordan would allow Israel overflight rights. I mean, look at where Israel is. It can't fly anywhere without overflying someone (except down the Red Sea.) And Jordan is not in conflict with Israel like Syria is. But once you're out of Jordan you have countries that are not so friendly. But Lebanon has no capability whatever to interfere with you if Hezbollah is not currently engaged in shooting down a jet at high altitude. Hezbollah is mostly just shooting down Hermes drones at the moment.
And once you're past Lebanon over the Med you're in international airspace. Then if you go along between the border of Turkey and Syria, neither side can actually interfere with you because both sides are confusing each other's air defenses (except for the Russians, of course - if they're turned on.)
And who knows what kind of stealth and ECM was on that F-35. If it was an Israeli F-35 intended to be a nuclear bomb drop asset, it's probably specially stealthed over the usual capability. Not that it would likely work against Russian air defense tech, but again any advantage one gets is worth getting in such a situation. So I think that route to Iran would make sense.
i picked this up at moa and happen to also agree with it..
"Let's deal with the "Pepe nuke" thing once and for all. Someone wanna send a clear message ; we know your capabilities and your plans , we have something to counter it in an humiliating manner if you dare.
Nothing happened yet , message send , message received , end of the story... for now
Yes, this is my take at the moment as well. I mean, it works whether the story is true or not!
We all know that the Israelis would love to nuke Iran and we all know that they're capable, and that they would have NO moral qualms in doing so.
We also know that things are going south for Israel, socially, economically, politically, existentially.
We all know that psychopaths prioritize self-preservation, at all costs.
Yes, true or not, it's the right time to deliver an ultimatum.
I'd agree with that, except the Iranian government knows full well that Israel has nukes. And as was demonstrated by the Iran attack, they know where they are and they can hit them before they're used. That was the entire point of their message: to hit those airfields in the Negev - which is also where Dimona is and likely where many of the gravity bombs are stored. The missile locations may or may not be in the same area; not that it matters since Iran can hit anywhere in Israel.
Also, if the incident did happen, the Russians just sent a very clear message that Russia isn't going to let Israel do what they are threatening. And as I've pointed out, Russia undoubtedly knows exactly where those missiles and stored nukes are and can hit them at any time with their hypersonic missiles. Something Israel needs to remember now that Russia has told them "no" in no uncertain terms (again, if the incident did happen.)
So everyone should revise their estimate: 1) Iran is not afraid of Israeli nukes in any event; 2) Russia won't allow them to be used (which is also true whether or not the incident happened.)
The Duran pointed out something interesting yesterday: meetings between Iran and North Korea, and North Korea and Russia. They think the North Koreans were very interested in the Iran attack on Israel because Iran penetrated air defenses which are very similar to the ones used by Japan and South Korea. So the North Koreans would like the data collected by Iran during its attack.
North Korea has a history of cooperation with Iran. One reason Iran's facilities are so dug in is because North Korea showed them how, since everything in North Korea is buried underground as well. In fact, North Korea apparently has missile bunkers with the ability to "chain-fire" missiles one after another from what is essentially a conveyor belt. And it's likely Iran does, too.
I read somewhere or from some interview that Iran has its missile defenses dispersed all over the country and that they are all independently operated, so that if Tehran HQ is taken out, they can continue to fire independently. I'm sure Israel is aware of that, too.
So as to who delivered an actual "ultimatum" and which incident delivered it is unclear. Maybe both of them did.
but the adults have left the building, short of russia and china and they aren't the adults care taking israel, are they?? those ones are persona non grata..
as for the ongoing secrets being revealed or not - again we have to wait and see where any of this goes.. for the time being it is hard to know, but it does look scary.. i will give you that..
Wasn't there an F35 crashed in some Mid-Atlantic state in US after pilot bailed and plane wasn't found for a few days? Maybe 6 months ago? So I guess that's a maybe.
Yeah, that was last September. Who knows? These F-35s are garbage - maybe the Israeli jet crashed on its own, someone found the nuke and the rest is embellishment by someone for unknown reasons. Anything is possible absent any further details.
USMC F-35 crashed in South Carolina on 17 September 2023. The plane was found a day later, but there was no tracking device (stealth...) and the plane flew for 60 miles without a pilot. There are a few issues. It would have taken longer to find but the plane crashed near homes. I don't know if the USMC ever released any findings or causes.
Isn't it most likely that nothing at all happened, and this story is merely another Israeli lie to cover up their failure to respond to Iran? They comfort their supporters by claiming they were just about to give the Iranians a good hiding when those pesky Russians intervened. NOW they can say, 'end of story', nothing more to see here, move along now.
Anything is possible. The problem is why would anyone outside of the West be willing to carry that hoax forward? Pepe's sources are presumably smarter than to accept an Israeli story at face value. If the "Big Power" source is, as I suspect, China, China has no motivation to accept such a story - and in any event, could easily check with Russia on its veracity. So could any number of other states in West Asia and Asia if they were used to transmit the Israeli hoax.
Note that none of this comes as far as we know from any Israeli source. It comes strictly from one "Big Power" in Asia or West Asia who, according to Pepe, came across the incident as part of its own intelligence activities. What activities is not spelled out, so of course it's possible they were bamboozled by some Israeli con. That would seem to be unlikely. For one thing, it's an odd way to spread a hoax and it's an odd hoax to spread.
For another thing, it puts the Israelis in a bad light for two reasons: 1) they are seen to be nuclear terrorists, and 2) they are seen to have failed at being nuclear terrorists.
Not a good look to explain why your drone attack on Iran failed.
And since the Israelis have said nothing about the incident publicly, the only people they can be comforting are the people in the government who expected more. But if that's the case, why bother letting it leak at all? Just spread the hoax directly to your associates and call it a day.
I'm inclined to think "something" happened. We just don't know what or how and probably never will.
Of course none of us, not even Escobar, knows what if anything happened.
It just seems to me that 'nothing happened' is both the most parsimonious explanation, and the one which makes all the countries involve look relatively 'good', so none are motivated to express doubts publicly.
This lie suits Israel marvelously because it gets them off the hook of having to carry out their threats whilst preserving their 'mad dog' reputation. The local tough guys (in their own inflated self perception) can reluctantly accept having been slapped down by the world's toughest guy. They need to recover from their recent loss of face, but know that they can't make a credible attack without risking suicide (and may not actually be able to mount a serious attack even if they mean it). This lie gives them a wonderful escape, leaving breathless Western commentators still taking them seriously.
The Israelis could easily have got the Chinese government to participate in this game of 'Chinese whispers' because the Chinese are keen to soothe Middle Eastern tensions, as their recent peace-making between Saudi Arabia and Iran has demonstrated. They could easily have passed the 'news' to an eager journalist who enjoys wide coverage in the West, which is the audience the Israelis want. If the Israelis told the Chinese that after this face saving exercise they would shut up and not actually attack Iran, I think the Chinese would happily have gone along with it. (No one asks why a source in possession of this information about a real event would have modestly and generously given this career enhancing world exclusive scoop to Escobar, possibly to his own detriment.)
The Israelis save face and don't need to comment. The Chinese promote peace 'diplomatically' and look good to those in the know. The Russians also look good, as the world's top tough guys who protected their Iranian clients, and took the obnoxious Israelis down a peg. The Iranians won't want to challenge the Israelis to try something else. The lack of physical evidence and official comment means the barking dogs of the media will soon find something else to howl over.
There may be a simple test. If the Israelis shut up for a while and go back to killing Arabs, that would support the notion that 'nothing happened' and it was just a lie convenient for them. If they continue blustering and make some sort of physical attack on Iran it would strengthen the proposition that 'something' actually happened, and they will keep trying.
This may be a good point for we blind men in a dark room to cease seeking the black cat which may never have been there.
Hm, interesting take on the flight routes. - If we view flight times along the routes, we'd get some estimate (however long exactly) of the time during which a shootdown must have been executed; that is, from the ready intel picture that allows to recognize what's going on, to giving the order to scramble/radar-paint (up and down the chain of command), to then - what? Fire a missile from 200 miles into the sky against a stealth target? Without visual confirmation? Based on rumours of Israeli intent? - Assume however you did pull the trigger. Then, no immediate NOTAM for all traffic in the vicinity to get the hell out of dodge? phew.
Alas. Let's see for the reversed conclusion. Assume that the kill chain has been by whatever means prepared well enough to allow targeting the lone F-35 along its attack vector. If you know *that* certain what Nutty's up to, you might just as well tell him to forget about it, basically threatening him with a no fly zone of whatever extension. The russians would have escalation dominance, so no getting behind it when Khmeimim serves up the pilmeni, hm?
Let me say, it doesn't appear very credible, and I for one am not quite convinced of the tale in light of the considerations above. However, please consider that my view on this is given without any actual expertise in all the minutiae involved, so take grain of salt as you see fit.
[telephone rings]
Nutty: Wolodya! How are you?
Putin: Don't ask. Listen, Nutty - you know I'm good friends with the cockroaches around your house ...
Nutty: Yes.
Putin: ... forget about it. - you hear me, Nutty?
Nutty: Wolodya, you ... LOOK, SQUIRRELS!!!
****
Not saying there aren't complications with the scenario. But in the absence of further details, speculation is all there is.
Clearing the obvious away - there won't be a NOTAM if a nuke is involved, especially on a time-sensitive reaction. They know the nuke isn't going off, nukes don't go off unless armed and they aren't armed until launched AFAIK. So there was no threat to aircraft over Syria or the Med.
It depends on whether Russia KNEW there was a nuke on board (if not what it was to be used for.) If it didn't know until, as I suggested, it saw the F-35 was actually over Syrian airspace (or the Med) and NOT attacking Syrian targets, there would be a certain amount of time to place a quick call to whoever - or the local commander could simply have made the call himself based on some standing orders of unknown content.
A Russian S-400 connected to a Russian AWACs equivalent would not need visual confirmation - especially if they already knew the payload. And of course an Su-35 already in the air could be quickly rerouted to fire a long-range missile or acquire visual. So that depends on the attack method - of which we know nothing.
The more I think about it, I'm partial to the Russians having known IN ADVANCE that the Israelis were going to do this. I'm betting they have the Israeli government thoroughly penetrated at the highest levels. Israel is full of ex-Russians; gotta be a spy in there somewhere.
As to why they wouldn't just call Nutty, there are possibilities: 1) no time - they didn't get the word until the plane was in or about to be in the air, and/or 2) they couldn't count on Nutty's cooperation - or even count on getting hold of the Israeli deconfliction phone line and then getting Nutty to answer.
After all an Israeli nuke strike is a big deal - Nutty wouldn't have done it without conviction. Russia could have threatened (non-nuclear) retaliation but Nutty could dismiss that if it wasn't framed aggressively enough. And then there's the problem a US response to that which Nutty would be counting on, especially if the US knew he was going to do this and had signed off on it.
And yes, I think Biden and the neocons would have signed off on it, regardless of what the MSM is blathering about a "rift" between the US and Israel. That's all utter BS.
So your speculation is as good as anyone else's, absent any further details of the event. At least you're thinking about it. But anything any of us can come up with can be countered by some other speculation.
So it remains plausible - and that's all it is so far.
my impression, and don't ask me why i say this - was that the f 35 was shot down over jordan.. and yes, my impression has all along been that china is the big power... but until more comes out, it is all mute..
Yup. Without details and with an active coverup if it did happen, this goes nowhere.
Not sure about Jordan. Pepe's original posts says: 'As the Israeli F-35 was leaving Jordanian airspace..." This implies right on the border with either Syria or Saudi Arabia or Lebanon While it's possible that Russia would shoot down a plan over the border inside Saudi Arabia, the probability is much higher that it was Syria. I'm not sure Israel would want to risk a Saudi intercept, whereas they're used to attacking Syria albeit usually from the Med or Lebanon.
If the plane was heading into Lebanon - which would make some sense as cover for suggesting an attack on Syria or Lebanon itself - it would likely mean it was heading for the Med. If the Russians had advance knowledge of the payload, they could have hit it as it passed over Lebanon and then it crashed in the Med. That's the only scenario that fits everything.
Although I don't know why they would be heading north into the Med. The one concept I can think of would be to go around between the Syrian and Turkish border through northern Iraq to Iran. Seems risky to me as well, since they probably didn't have either Turkish or Iraqi permission and would be at risk all the way. Whereas through Syria they would not likely be attacked by anyone and in Iraq if they went through Kurdish territory they would avoid Iraq air defenses if there are any capable of shooting down an F-35. So maybe tracing the border would be the smart move. It would confuse the air defense commands of each country by doing that as well, and both Turkey and Iraq would be under US pressure and Syria has minimal air defense as has been demonstrated before.
There's one big positive having it crash in Jordan. Jordan is under US and Israeli control, so cleaning up the mess would be easier. If it crashed in the Med, it's gone. If it crashed in Syria, the Russians would clean it up. Anywhere else would risk evidence of the event.
So that could be how it went. Ain't speculation grand?
if it was headed to iran, the most obvious direction is thru iraq to iran, via jordan.. it wouldn't be headed to lebannon, or syria or the med.. however, anything is possible and as you note - ain't speculation grand! i still think jordan if it was going to happen anywhere... jordan is a toadie for the usa-israel..
But as I said, heading to the Med via Lebanon makes great sense if you're trying to disguise the purpose of the flight. Israel is all over Lebanon and does strikes against Syria from there and from the Med. So heading for the Med isn't going to trigger any particular reaction by anyone other than surveillance.
Then you turn your plane right and follow the border between Turkey and Syria which neither of which are likely to launch against you, and that takes you right to northern Iraq where your friends, the Kurds, are and then you do your thing either from Iraq or inside Iran (probably the former if you're using some sort of missile rather than a gravity bomb and want to avoid Iranian S-300/400 air defense - although they probably cover Iraq anyway.)
Going the obvious direction can look like attacking Syria, which is fine, but as I also pointed out, once you're past western Syria you're telegraphing an attack against Iran.
Of course Jordan would allow Israel overflight rights. I mean, look at where Israel is. It can't fly anywhere without overflying someone (except down the Red Sea.) And Jordan is not in conflict with Israel like Syria is. But once you're out of Jordan you have countries that are not so friendly. But Lebanon has no capability whatever to interfere with you if Hezbollah is not currently engaged in shooting down a jet at high altitude. Hezbollah is mostly just shooting down Hermes drones at the moment.
And once you're past Lebanon over the Med you're in international airspace. Then if you go along between the border of Turkey and Syria, neither side can actually interfere with you because both sides are confusing each other's air defenses (except for the Russians, of course - if they're turned on.)
And who knows what kind of stealth and ECM was on that F-35. If it was an Israeli F-35 intended to be a nuclear bomb drop asset, it's probably specially stealthed over the usual capability. Not that it would likely work against Russian air defense tech, but again any advantage one gets is worth getting in such a situation. So I think that route to Iran would make sense.
Again - if it happened at all. :-)
yes, that is all possible, so it is impossible to discount... thanks richard...
i picked this up at moa and happen to also agree with it..
"Let's deal with the "Pepe nuke" thing once and for all. Someone wanna send a clear message ; we know your capabilities and your plans , we have something to counter it in an humiliating manner if you dare.
Nothing happened yet , message send , message received , end of the story... for now
Yes, this is my take at the moment as well. I mean, it works whether the story is true or not!
We all know that the Israelis would love to nuke Iran and we all know that they're capable, and that they would have NO moral qualms in doing so.
We also know that things are going south for Israel, socially, economically, politically, existentially.
We all know that psychopaths prioritize self-preservation, at all costs.
Yes, true or not, it's the right time to deliver an ultimatum.
Posted by: john | Apr 26 2024 9:32 utc "
I'd agree with that, except the Iranian government knows full well that Israel has nukes. And as was demonstrated by the Iran attack, they know where they are and they can hit them before they're used. That was the entire point of their message: to hit those airfields in the Negev - which is also where Dimona is and likely where many of the gravity bombs are stored. The missile locations may or may not be in the same area; not that it matters since Iran can hit anywhere in Israel.
Also, if the incident did happen, the Russians just sent a very clear message that Russia isn't going to let Israel do what they are threatening. And as I've pointed out, Russia undoubtedly knows exactly where those missiles and stored nukes are and can hit them at any time with their hypersonic missiles. Something Israel needs to remember now that Russia has told them "no" in no uncertain terms (again, if the incident did happen.)
So everyone should revise their estimate: 1) Iran is not afraid of Israeli nukes in any event; 2) Russia won't allow them to be used (which is also true whether or not the incident happened.)
The Duran pointed out something interesting yesterday: meetings between Iran and North Korea, and North Korea and Russia. They think the North Koreans were very interested in the Iran attack on Israel because Iran penetrated air defenses which are very similar to the ones used by Japan and South Korea. So the North Koreans would like the data collected by Iran during its attack.
North Korea has a history of cooperation with Iran. One reason Iran's facilities are so dug in is because North Korea showed them how, since everything in North Korea is buried underground as well. In fact, North Korea apparently has missile bunkers with the ability to "chain-fire" missiles one after another from what is essentially a conveyor belt. And it's likely Iran does, too.
I read somewhere or from some interview that Iran has its missile defenses dispersed all over the country and that they are all independently operated, so that if Tehran HQ is taken out, they can continue to fire independently. I'm sure Israel is aware of that, too.
So as to who delivered an actual "ultimatum" and which incident delivered it is unclear. Maybe both of them did.
accidents can and do happen, you know?
but the adults have left the building, short of russia and china and they aren't the adults care taking israel, are they?? those ones are persona non grata..
as for the ongoing secrets being revealed or not - again we have to wait and see where any of this goes.. for the time being it is hard to know, but it does look scary.. i will give you that..
Wasn't there an F35 crashed in some Mid-Atlantic state in US after pilot bailed and plane wasn't found for a few days? Maybe 6 months ago? So I guess that's a maybe.
Yeah, that was last September. Who knows? These F-35s are garbage - maybe the Israeli jet crashed on its own, someone found the nuke and the rest is embellishment by someone for unknown reasons. Anything is possible absent any further details.
USMC F-35 crashed in South Carolina on 17 September 2023. The plane was found a day later, but there was no tracking device (stealth...) and the plane flew for 60 miles without a pilot. There are a few issues. It would have taken longer to find but the plane crashed near homes. I don't know if the USMC ever released any findings or causes.
Isn't it most likely that nothing at all happened, and this story is merely another Israeli lie to cover up their failure to respond to Iran? They comfort their supporters by claiming they were just about to give the Iranians a good hiding when those pesky Russians intervened. NOW they can say, 'end of story', nothing more to see here, move along now.
Anything is possible. The problem is why would anyone outside of the West be willing to carry that hoax forward? Pepe's sources are presumably smarter than to accept an Israeli story at face value. If the "Big Power" source is, as I suspect, China, China has no motivation to accept such a story - and in any event, could easily check with Russia on its veracity. So could any number of other states in West Asia and Asia if they were used to transmit the Israeli hoax.
Note that none of this comes as far as we know from any Israeli source. It comes strictly from one "Big Power" in Asia or West Asia who, according to Pepe, came across the incident as part of its own intelligence activities. What activities is not spelled out, so of course it's possible they were bamboozled by some Israeli con. That would seem to be unlikely. For one thing, it's an odd way to spread a hoax and it's an odd hoax to spread.
For another thing, it puts the Israelis in a bad light for two reasons: 1) they are seen to be nuclear terrorists, and 2) they are seen to have failed at being nuclear terrorists.
Not a good look to explain why your drone attack on Iran failed.
And since the Israelis have said nothing about the incident publicly, the only people they can be comforting are the people in the government who expected more. But if that's the case, why bother letting it leak at all? Just spread the hoax directly to your associates and call it a day.
I'm inclined to think "something" happened. We just don't know what or how and probably never will.
Of course none of us, not even Escobar, knows what if anything happened.
It just seems to me that 'nothing happened' is both the most parsimonious explanation, and the one which makes all the countries involve look relatively 'good', so none are motivated to express doubts publicly.
This lie suits Israel marvelously because it gets them off the hook of having to carry out their threats whilst preserving their 'mad dog' reputation. The local tough guys (in their own inflated self perception) can reluctantly accept having been slapped down by the world's toughest guy. They need to recover from their recent loss of face, but know that they can't make a credible attack without risking suicide (and may not actually be able to mount a serious attack even if they mean it). This lie gives them a wonderful escape, leaving breathless Western commentators still taking them seriously.
The Israelis could easily have got the Chinese government to participate in this game of 'Chinese whispers' because the Chinese are keen to soothe Middle Eastern tensions, as their recent peace-making between Saudi Arabia and Iran has demonstrated. They could easily have passed the 'news' to an eager journalist who enjoys wide coverage in the West, which is the audience the Israelis want. If the Israelis told the Chinese that after this face saving exercise they would shut up and not actually attack Iran, I think the Chinese would happily have gone along with it. (No one asks why a source in possession of this information about a real event would have modestly and generously given this career enhancing world exclusive scoop to Escobar, possibly to his own detriment.)
The Israelis save face and don't need to comment. The Chinese promote peace 'diplomatically' and look good to those in the know. The Russians also look good, as the world's top tough guys who protected their Iranian clients, and took the obnoxious Israelis down a peg. The Iranians won't want to challenge the Israelis to try something else. The lack of physical evidence and official comment means the barking dogs of the media will soon find something else to howl over.
There may be a simple test. If the Israelis shut up for a while and go back to killing Arabs, that would support the notion that 'nothing happened' and it was just a lie convenient for them. If they continue blustering and make some sort of physical attack on Iran it would strengthen the proposition that 'something' actually happened, and they will keep trying.
This may be a good point for we blind men in a dark room to cease seeking the black cat which may never have been there.