thanks richard.. these are insightful comments, typical of you.. we'll see how it plays out... many unpredictable possibilities are conceivable... the most obvious one might be the collapse of the ukraine front, at which point a lot of other possibilities rear their heads... thanks again for the update and response here to mearsheimer..
Well said. Gorbachev threw away the Iron Curtain 1.0, so now Putin has to rebuild it. The West hasn't changed its view of Russia in nearly 200 years, Eastern Others that have to be tamed and dominated. Taking all of Ukraine will also help keep the Moldovan compradors in check, and connect Russia with Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia (through Hungary). If the West/Poles get stupid about Kaliningrad, that curtain may include a chunk of Lithuania.
The problem has always been NATO, and the Finns will regret their utter stupidity and the mendacity of a certain woke woman.
Russians are not going to give up the Western Ukraine; Cuba with the US base in Guantanamo Bay comes to mind. Russians wouldn’t have to develop that part of the country, the worst off it gets the better for them it becomes. They just need to make sure nobody else enters the region.
Also, l suppose Donetsk/Lugansk guys can’t wait to get their hands on their former western countrymen, so
perhaps, when the dust settles, it’s going to be a mix of former Eastern Ukrainian guys as the regional executive power with “rehabilitated” nationalists as their mussel presiding over those lands .
Putin doesn't have an interest in western Ukraine. The problem everyone has is assuming Russia "wants" this or "wants" that. It's not a question of "want." It's a question of Russia's security. Russia will do what is necessary and that means putting its air defenses right next to those Aegis Ashore installations.
Putin never wanted this war. Happened anyway. Putin wanted Ukraine to capitulate in March , 2022. Didn't happen and here we are. Now there is only one solution: the General Staff's Plan B.
People like Mercouris and Christoforou think like "civilians". They don't think like states or leaders of states. This is why they are always lamenting how he doesn't understand why the US does what it does or Israel or Ukraine or whoever.
I'm an individualist anarchist. I'm not blinkered by an inability to understand the nature of the state. Also I have no morals or ethics so I don't have a problem assessing what someone will do based on human nature.
Of Washington's lost Ukrainian Proxy War to weaken Russia and pillage its resources, perhaps the greatest and most feckless imperial play, something of a progress update.
The long and rich history of the contemporary genocides of the cultured, cultivated Europeans, The Americans and the Brits., to nominate yet a few.
Here you go Richard .... much confirmation is popping up.
quoting ---
The United States has a much higher stake in Russia's war on Ukraine than most people think. A Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the United States cuts off all military assistance and Europe follows suit. Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO’s border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean.
The sudden collapse of Western aid would likely lead sooner or later to the collapse of Ukraine’s ability to hold off the Russian military. Russian forces could push all the way to the western Ukrainian border in such a scenario and establish new military bases on the borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. The Russians are preparing occupation military forces to handle the almost inevitable Ukrainian insurgency while leaving front line troops free to threaten NATO.
The Russians have expanded their army’s structure to fight the war and have indicated their intention of retaining the larger structure after the war.[5] They could readily station three full armies (the 18th Combined Arms Army and the 25th Combined Arms Army newly created for this war and the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army) on the borders of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania.[6]
Wait a second, so the completely dead, battered, beaten and defeated, poor Russian army, who—according to MSM—had had 95% casualties thus far, is suddenly able to muster 3 entire full-fledged field armies just for the task of securing the Polish border?
That is a veritable universe of difference with what’s allowed for public consumption.
ISW (Institute for the Study of War) is a DC-based neocon cutout run by Kimberly Kagan, sister-in-law to PNAC neocon Robert Kagan, husband to Victoria Nuland. In fact you can see the report itself is undersigned by Robert’s brother, Frederick W. Kagan as well.
If these psychopathic Neocons shills are saying this so openly there's reasons for it ... it's another sign/confirmation Russia taking all of Ukraine [ and moving Missiles to Nato's borders asap ] is a definite strategic/tactical possibility now.
Things have moved on a lot since 2021 which triggered the conflict -- remembering that it was UKRAINE moving it's newly trained military along the Donbass contact line readying for an attack that Russia originally first responded to in early 2021
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in an interview with Interfax
- Serhiy Oleksiyovych, if and when denazification, demilitarization takes place as a result of the special military operation, and if Ukraine acquires a guaranteed neutral status, will this be enough for Russia to feel safe from the United States and NATO, or are there any other steps needed to make this happen?
- According to our forecasts, is the issue of restoring or at least returning to normalcy Russian-American relations a matter of decades, or can it still happen in our lifetime?
- It is obvious to me that we are in a long historical period, at least a deep freeze in bilateral relations. And this confrontational potential, this confrontational charge, it is so significant that it will be quite difficult to get rid of it. The problem is that it is extremely difficult for the US ruling circles to come to terms with the changing world order. And many of them are simply organically incapable of moving away from thinking in terms of their own superiority.
The other day, the Americans put into operation a missile defense base in Poland. And we used to say that the Aegis missiles that are deployed there are designed not only for anti-missiles, but also for launching cruise missiles, which were banned by the INF Treaty. Do we not see the opening of this base as a signal that it is time for us to respond as well?
- Judging by the eagerness with which the United States is moving towards the practical implementation of its plans for the early deployment of ground-based intermediate-range missiles, almost the only obstacle on this path was the incomplete development of advanced weapons of the appropriate class by the American military-industrial complex. Recently, however, the real progress that the Americans have made in this area has been noticeable, and some elements of such weapons are already sporadically appearing "in iron" outside the national territory of the United States, in particular in Europe. In recent days, there has been a lot of talk that the deployment of such systems in the Asia-Pacific region is about to begin.
There should be no doubt about our determination to respond materially to Washington. Judging by the course of events, the moment is ripening when the necessary political decisions in Moscow can be made quickly. Our response will not be long in coming.
Afghanistan VDV Counter-insurgency tactic was largely successful since Russia is a land power and does not have the attrition problems. Same applies to Indian Counter-insurgency warfare against Assam and Commie rebels.
I think, this is wrong, because it does not take into account what happened 2014, the war between 2014 and 2022 , what Merkel said about Minsk II , the role of the USA in these events and what Putin said about his goals.
I think Putin feels betrayed by the west and therefore will exactly do what he always said. He will occupy (free) the rest of the Donbas republics. Then establish the rest of Ucraine as some sort of „buffer state“ like Belarus is and Ucraine was until 2014. He will not rely on any securitiy gurantees by UNO or someone else.
He will not go into a war with NATO. It is obvious that he wants to keep NATO out in this conflict because he does not want a third WW, which he cannot win, because nobody can win a global nuclear war.
A totally different question is whether he really will be able to implement all this. You know it is war.
Everyone in the west is certain that they know what Putin's plan is. "I suspect", "presumably" and other conditionals accompany their theories.
The goals of the SMO were stated clearly at the beginning. They are the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. That process continues apace.
thanks richard.. these are insightful comments, typical of you.. we'll see how it plays out... many unpredictable possibilities are conceivable... the most obvious one might be the collapse of the ukraine front, at which point a lot of other possibilities rear their heads... thanks again for the update and response here to mearsheimer..
Interesting
Well said. Gorbachev threw away the Iron Curtain 1.0, so now Putin has to rebuild it. The West hasn't changed its view of Russia in nearly 200 years, Eastern Others that have to be tamed and dominated. Taking all of Ukraine will also help keep the Moldovan compradors in check, and connect Russia with Hungary, Slovakia and Serbia (through Hungary). If the West/Poles get stupid about Kaliningrad, that curtain may include a chunk of Lithuania.
The problem has always been NATO, and the Finns will regret their utter stupidity and the mendacity of a certain woke woman.
I think this is a superb analysis. Thank you!
You're full of sh-t. Russia has no such plans.
I tend to agree.
Russians are not going to give up the Western Ukraine; Cuba with the US base in Guantanamo Bay comes to mind. Russians wouldn’t have to develop that part of the country, the worst off it gets the better for them it becomes. They just need to make sure nobody else enters the region.
Also, l suppose Donetsk/Lugansk guys can’t wait to get their hands on their former western countrymen, so
perhaps, when the dust settles, it’s going to be a mix of former Eastern Ukrainian guys as the regional executive power with “rehabilitated” nationalists as their mussel presiding over those lands .
Putin doesn't have an interest in western Ukraine. The problem everyone has is assuming Russia "wants" this or "wants" that. It's not a question of "want." It's a question of Russia's security. Russia will do what is necessary and that means putting its air defenses right next to those Aegis Ashore installations.
Putin never wanted this war. Happened anyway. Putin wanted Ukraine to capitulate in March , 2022. Didn't happen and here we are. Now there is only one solution: the General Staff's Plan B.
People like Mercouris and Christoforou think like "civilians". They don't think like states or leaders of states. This is why they are always lamenting how he doesn't understand why the US does what it does or Israel or Ukraine or whoever.
I'm an individualist anarchist. I'm not blinkered by an inability to understand the nature of the state. Also I have no morals or ethics so I don't have a problem assessing what someone will do based on human nature.
On related themes . . .
Of Washington's lost Ukrainian Proxy War to weaken Russia and pillage its resources, perhaps the greatest and most feckless imperial play, something of a progress update.
The long and rich history of the contemporary genocides of the cultured, cultivated Europeans, The Americans and the Brits., to nominate yet a few.
https://les7eb.substack.com/p/genocide-and-economics
Free to subscribe . . . The Dead Do Not Die.
_____________
Thanks Hack . Very plausible plan and those folks in Transnistria need to get some breathing room and stretch their legs too.
Here you go Richard .... much confirmation is popping up.
quoting ---
The United States has a much higher stake in Russia's war on Ukraine than most people think. A Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the United States cuts off all military assistance and Europe follows suit. Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO’s border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean.
The sudden collapse of Western aid would likely lead sooner or later to the collapse of Ukraine’s ability to hold off the Russian military. Russian forces could push all the way to the western Ukrainian border in such a scenario and establish new military bases on the borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. The Russians are preparing occupation military forces to handle the almost inevitable Ukrainian insurgency while leaving front line troops free to threaten NATO.
The Russians have expanded their army’s structure to fight the war and have indicated their intention of retaining the larger structure after the war.[5] They could readily station three full armies (the 18th Combined Arms Army and the 25th Combined Arms Army newly created for this war and the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army) on the borders of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania.[6]
Wait a second, so the completely dead, battered, beaten and defeated, poor Russian army, who—according to MSM—had had 95% casualties thus far, is suddenly able to muster 3 entire full-fledged field armies just for the task of securing the Polish border?
That is a veritable universe of difference with what’s allowed for public consumption.
[end quotes]
SEE
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/breaking-down-thinktank-lands-latest
and https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine
ISW (Institute for the Study of War) is a DC-based neocon cutout run by Kimberly Kagan, sister-in-law to PNAC neocon Robert Kagan, husband to Victoria Nuland. In fact you can see the report itself is undersigned by Robert’s brother, Frederick W. Kagan as well.
If these psychopathic Neocons shills are saying this so openly there's reasons for it ... it's another sign/confirmation Russia taking all of Ukraine [ and moving Missiles to Nato's borders asap ] is a definite strategic/tactical possibility now.
Things have moved on a lot since 2021 which triggered the conflict -- remembering that it was UKRAINE moving it's newly trained military along the Donbass contact line readying for an attack that Russia originally first responded to in early 2021
Richard also see:
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in an interview with Interfax
- Serhiy Oleksiyovych, if and when denazification, demilitarization takes place as a result of the special military operation, and if Ukraine acquires a guaranteed neutral status, will this be enough for Russia to feel safe from the United States and NATO, or are there any other steps needed to make this happen?
- According to our forecasts, is the issue of restoring or at least returning to normalcy Russian-American relations a matter of decades, or can it still happen in our lifetime?
- It is obvious to me that we are in a long historical period, at least a deep freeze in bilateral relations. And this confrontational potential, this confrontational charge, it is so significant that it will be quite difficult to get rid of it. The problem is that it is extremely difficult for the US ruling circles to come to terms with the changing world order. And many of them are simply organically incapable of moving away from thinking in terms of their own superiority.
The other day, the Americans put into operation a missile defense base in Poland. And we used to say that the Aegis missiles that are deployed there are designed not only for anti-missiles, but also for launching cruise missiles, which were banned by the INF Treaty. Do we not see the opening of this base as a signal that it is time for us to respond as well?
- Judging by the eagerness with which the United States is moving towards the practical implementation of its plans for the early deployment of ground-based intermediate-range missiles, almost the only obstacle on this path was the incomplete development of advanced weapons of the appropriate class by the American military-industrial complex. Recently, however, the real progress that the Americans have made in this area has been noticeable, and some elements of such weapons are already sporadically appearing "in iron" outside the national territory of the United States, in particular in Europe. In recent days, there has been a lot of talk that the deployment of such systems in the Asia-Pacific region is about to begin.
There should be no doubt about our determination to respond materially to Washington. Judging by the course of events, the moment is ripening when the necessary political decisions in Moscow can be made quickly. Our response will not be long in coming.
see full info via https://karlof1.substack.com/p/deputy-fm-ryabkovs-interfax-interview
Cheers sean
Afghanistan VDV Counter-insurgency tactic was largely successful since Russia is a land power and does not have the attrition problems. Same applies to Indian Counter-insurgency warfare against Assam and Commie rebels.
I think, this is wrong, because it does not take into account what happened 2014, the war between 2014 and 2022 , what Merkel said about Minsk II , the role of the USA in these events and what Putin said about his goals.
I think Putin feels betrayed by the west and therefore will exactly do what he always said. He will occupy (free) the rest of the Donbas republics. Then establish the rest of Ucraine as some sort of „buffer state“ like Belarus is and Ucraine was until 2014. He will not rely on any securitiy gurantees by UNO or someone else.
He will not go into a war with NATO. It is obvious that he wants to keep NATO out in this conflict because he does not want a third WW, which he cannot win, because nobody can win a global nuclear war.
A totally different question is whether he really will be able to implement all this. You know it is war.