Unfortunately I think you're right. I just watched the UK Parliament debate the Iranian response and except for George Galloway there were no condemnations of Israel having provoked Iran; rather just the usual ritual condemnations of Hamas (sponsored by Israel) and Iran.
I think Iran's response was measured and moderate, big enough to cause some pain, but small enough, and targeted toward military facilities to minimize civilian casualties (and thus avoid the maelström of outrage that would emanate from the EU and US). However, I think Israel wants to widen the conflict to deflect from its abject failure in Gaza, and to be sure the neocon/neolib factions are just gushing at the opportunity to take Iran down. Queue John Bolton, foaming at the mouth somewhere. Problem is, Russia has already warned the US that its involvement will bring Russia onside to protect Iran, and so we get WW3. How nice!
You may not be Biblical, Richard, but the Bible tells us Israel starts WW3, so this might be a good time for you and others to consider that.
I think the best way for Iz to get the Yanks on board kinetically is to mount a few ISIS attacks on US bases in the region.
If they counterattack into Iran, they have to fly over other nations airspace, presumably either Iraq or Saudi Arabia, both of which are now in BRICS+. Might not be so smooth a journey. Might not get permission even.
Did you miss the part about Israel's Dolphin submarines? That's the optimum way for Israel to strike Iran, at least at this stage of the war. It does three things: 1) avoids air losses in an air attack; 2) avoids wasting Jericho missiles it may need later; and 3) it demonstrates Israel's second-strike capability.
After the war widens it will be the US air power attacking Iran, not Israel's. Israel will need it to try to deal with Hezbollah (at which it will fail.)
Yes, but if those strikes are successful, then there will be no need for the US to be drawn in which is their main thrust, no?
And consider: what if the Iranians can retaliate against one of their subs? (What if the great Hacker Nation has been hacked, RSHack?!) Or might they not simply blow up Damona using heavy conventional bombardment which they have proven they are capable of?
That's why I suggested a false flag / ISIS attack directly on US bases dressed as Iranian Special Forces chanting 'Solameini Forever!!'. The US will HAVE to respond to that, no? Which is what Israel wants above all. Congress and the media will go full-bore jingoist, the money will flow, and all will be well for those who thrive off war.
Then Hormuz will get closed to Western and Jewish commerce.
I didn't say those strikes would be nuclear. If that happens, all prediction bets are off. I'm sure the Israeli subs have conventional munitions available for those missiles.
Sure, there could be a false flag attack. But those are relatively rare and take time to prepare. Israel can't pull those off in the next couple days. Depending on where their subs are, they probably can get a cruise missile launch off before much longer.
I'm sure Iran would hit Dimona in a major war, but OTOH consider that the Iranians don't want Palestinians inhaling radioactive dust, either. So Iran would limit its strike to disabling the installation not causing a radiation release. It would probably be easy to disable it, but hard to get a radiation release anyway.
The bottom line is that Israel just needs to prod Iran a couple more times and then Iran will have to go all in, as will Hezbollah. Remember, the whole point of this Israeli is simply to get the US involved by providing something the US can blame on Iran. So all Israel needs to do is cause another Iranian reaction. Iran has already told the US that if the US responds to an Iran attack the way it did the other night, Iran will consider US bases as legitimate targets.
So Israel doesn't have to do much more than get one more Iranian retaliation in which the US is involved. Firing one cruise missile with a conventional warhead from a sub directly into Iran would do it.
Good points about Dimona. I was thinking the same thing this morning after writing that, actually, that all they have to do is disable the facility.
As to the subs, I wasn't thinking nuclear. I was just thinking that if the US bases are hit by ISIS which is under false flag colour of an Iranian SF attack, then that will for sure bring the US in. Of course there are other scenarios which will work too.
We'll soon find out. But given the players involved in the US and Israel, it's hard to see them pulling back, isn't it?
What crappy leaders we have in so many countries these days....
"There is no such thing as 'Israel dragging the US' into this war. The US is a full partner in it."
Absolutely. Why would the Biden administration not be lying this time?
Let us not forget, none of this would be happening had the US, UK and France not blocked a condemnation of the embassy attack at the UN.
--
"This is a 'rock and a hard place' problem that can only be solved with US involvement in the Lebanon invasion - OR a US attack on Iran on behalf of Israel."
OR the US could institute a no-fly zone over Israel. (No, I'm not going to hold my breath.) Like a parent restraining a child throwing a temper tantrum.
OR - there are probably lots of other ORs. And there are certainly other actors involved or potentially involved.
I do suggest that the child throwing a temper tantrum is an apt analogy. Some adult needs to restrain the child before he makes the mess. And often, in my experience, the child throws those tantrums because of poor parenting.
--
As to US being involved in yet-another-war.... That boggles the mind. The only reason I can see for that is a deliberate intention to throw the entire world into chaos. The US might think that gives it a winning hand because everyone else will have less. I dunno; the US fleet will be at the bottom of the sea but the global south and Russia and China will likely still be standing. Thank God.
" none of this would be happening had the US, UK and France not blocked a condemnation of the embassy attack at the UN."
Nope. Would have happened anyway. Iran had to retaliate for the attack on its sovereign territory (the Consulate.) Also, this was a perfect opportunity for Iran to demonstrate its capabilities (to a minimal, mostly performative degree compared to what it could do).
Also, as some are pointing out today, it enabled Iran to collect valuable combat data to analyze as to Israel's and the US' responses. As Andrei Martyanov likes to point out, military decisions need hard data to determine strategy and operational doctrine. Feeling out the enemy is how it's done.
Yeah, you are probably right. Iran said that a UNSC condemnation o the attack on consulate would have been enough, but they said that AFTER the strike, yes? Timingis everything!
Your commentary is always welcome and appreciated RSH! Your logic is compelling- I’ll stop short of saying irrefutable- it might be - but I have to take the stance of “incurable optimist” as opposed to yours of “perpetual pessimist”. My take? The apartheid Jewish State of Israel- “stick a fork in it!” It’s done. Refrain from incapacitating Ben Gurion airport for a finite time to allow sensible citizens to emigrate- many already have dual citizenship - sad to admit that many of the “Ultra” Hasidim “settlers” are from large and fairly powerful Brooklyn congregations (strength in numbers- 6-10 children per family is the norm X multiple generations in the 20th century) and I’ve had various congregations as neighbors most of my life. They may choose martyrdom rather than leave…..oh well. Let Greater Palestine revert to those who have called it Home for the last millennium. I would favor a “carve out “ for Jerusalem as an Abrahamic holy land, jointly administered for the benefit of pilgrims to come, worship, and empower Peace on Earth as intended by the Creator. “You can say I’m a dreamer…….but I’m not the only one…..”
Great post, thanks. When my wife and I recently saw 'Dune 2' a week ago (out here in the west of Ireland, wow, our move from the US back to my home was well times), I said to her "I hope the Americans and Israelis all watch this film, because it'll prepare them for what's about to happen to them". Long before the current events, since reading JM Greer's piece from 2012 comparing Israel to the Crusader state Outremer, I've been wondering how long they could last. And prior to the last week, I'd have given them a chance of another 20 to 30 years. That's starting to seem unlikely now, and more than one analyst (including former US gov types) have put them in the 10 year range. Do you have an estimate? I think it'll be even sooner than that.
Well, it depends on how long this war - which I now view as inevitable - runs. It could be over in months, a year, or ten years like Afghanistan. This is the ridiculous part of this - these idiots are starting something they absolutely will not be able to control, any more than they did in Ukraine - but even less so.
There's no chance anyone can predict the outcome - other than that the US and Israel will lose because the Axis of Resistance has the advantage - because all of them are buried underground where no amount of military force can get to them without actually walking into those tunnels and bunkers and doing hand-to-hand, close quarter battle. Which the US isn't going to do.
The other possibility is that nukes get involved. At that point all predictions are off. Russia and China get involved, and then it becomes a fight between the US and Russia and China. IIRC, a nuke got used in Dune at one point to penetrate the Shield Wall in the attack on the Harkonnen base (in the book - haven't seen Part 2 of Dune yet.) :-)
Thanks for the reply. Yes, they used atomics in the second movie. Part 2 well worth the effort to see - definitely better on big screen - and part 3 (Dune Messiah) is also going to be made by the same director, he wants a trilogy).
Regarding the collapse, old man Orlov's 'reinventing collapse' seems to be playing out pretty well. Reminded also of Toynbee's model of civ rise and fall, his belief was the civs are formed by a 'creative minority', and when that minority becomes degenerate & senile, head for the hills (literally in my case!). I never cease to be amazed by the horrendous quality of leadership in the west - both in terms of intelligence (Johnoson, Bush, Truss, etc) and morality (liars like Starmer & Blair, Clinton, Obama, etc). Part of me wants to watch their project disintegrate, but I'm not keen to have isotopes rain down on my 1/2 acre either.
Interesting points RSH. Allow me to suggest a different lens. These leaders are not primarily crazy or deluded, they are essentially a criminal enterprise. The US foreign and domestic policy since at least 1948 has been driven by a lawless and ruthless desire to create a world providing wealth and power to the oligarchic class.
To that end all tools of government and media are bent to narrative control. The Oligarch Cartel is agnostic to the truth. Lies and truth are just a tool to further the Narrative.
So, as regards Istael here, the Narrative is aimed squarely at persuadable audiences to promote and retain power. They are not deluded. They know bery well their limits but they will say anything to maintain the illusion in the minds of the gullible public.
There are many useful idiots of course and they are either whores or dupes. But the top level of oligarchs know full well the game being played.
So, in the end, this Western Criminal Enterprise only ends by a collapse of the system incapable of supporting their predations any longer or it ends like any criminal gang in a violent shootout of some kind. Either way...not optimistic.
Of course I'm aware that these people are not "insane" in the clinical sense. They are psychopaths, which is not a mental illness but merely a behavior pattern. It is indeed a criminal exercise.
There's a difference between a rational psychopath and an irrational psychopath. We're being ruled by irrational psychopaths. Russia and China are ruled by rational psychopaths. And yes, Putin and Xi are psychopaths. Anyone ruling a country is a psychopath because only psychopaths get to that level of social power.
When I say "crazy", I mean stupid, ignorant and engaged in actions which will inevitably fail to achieve their stated goals while causing massive destruction around the world and eventually in the US itself if WWIII breaks out - which is where we're heading. The current lot are much more so than previous lots in either Israel or the US.
If you don't already, you should read Andrei Martyanov's blog "Reminiscence of the Future" where he excoriates the west's military and geopolitical and economic ignorance and stupidity on a daily basis.
In short, criminals tend to be stupid and ignorant as well as violent. The people running things have a criminal mindset - but better education and come from a higher social class than the usual street thugs. That's the only difference.
Meanwhile, the bomb in the FED's balance keeps ticking.
good overview richard! do you think a trump leadership would be even more crazy? trump-netanyahu, verses biden-netanyahu... both are kind of crazy...
i will share your post on moa.. cheers...
Yes, Trump will be worse if he gets in. Although it's hard to tell how much worse he could be...
Thanks for sharing the link to this post on MoA! Much appreciated.
Unfortunately I think you're right. I just watched the UK Parliament debate the Iranian response and except for George Galloway there were no condemnations of Israel having provoked Iran; rather just the usual ritual condemnations of Hamas (sponsored by Israel) and Iran.
I think Iran's response was measured and moderate, big enough to cause some pain, but small enough, and targeted toward military facilities to minimize civilian casualties (and thus avoid the maelström of outrage that would emanate from the EU and US). However, I think Israel wants to widen the conflict to deflect from its abject failure in Gaza, and to be sure the neocon/neolib factions are just gushing at the opportunity to take Iran down. Queue John Bolton, foaming at the mouth somewhere. Problem is, Russia has already warned the US that its involvement will bring Russia onside to protect Iran, and so we get WW3. How nice!
You may not be Biblical, Richard, but the Bible tells us Israel starts WW3, so this might be a good time for you and others to consider that.
Good report.
I think the best way for Iz to get the Yanks on board kinetically is to mount a few ISIS attacks on US bases in the region.
If they counterattack into Iran, they have to fly over other nations airspace, presumably either Iraq or Saudi Arabia, both of which are now in BRICS+. Might not be so smooth a journey. Might not get permission even.
Interesting times.
Good Haaretz article. 'Israel has been defeated' https://archive.ph/Fc4nx#selection-723.0-723.14
Did you miss the part about Israel's Dolphin submarines? That's the optimum way for Israel to strike Iran, at least at this stage of the war. It does three things: 1) avoids air losses in an air attack; 2) avoids wasting Jericho missiles it may need later; and 3) it demonstrates Israel's second-strike capability.
After the war widens it will be the US air power attacking Iran, not Israel's. Israel will need it to try to deal with Hezbollah (at which it will fail.)
Yes, but if those strikes are successful, then there will be no need for the US to be drawn in which is their main thrust, no?
And consider: what if the Iranians can retaliate against one of their subs? (What if the great Hacker Nation has been hacked, RSHack?!) Or might they not simply blow up Damona using heavy conventional bombardment which they have proven they are capable of?
That's why I suggested a false flag / ISIS attack directly on US bases dressed as Iranian Special Forces chanting 'Solameini Forever!!'. The US will HAVE to respond to that, no? Which is what Israel wants above all. Congress and the media will go full-bore jingoist, the money will flow, and all will be well for those who thrive off war.
Then Hormuz will get closed to Western and Jewish commerce.
Then things will get interesting....
We shall soon see!!
Again, thanks for a very good piece.
I didn't say those strikes would be nuclear. If that happens, all prediction bets are off. I'm sure the Israeli subs have conventional munitions available for those missiles.
Sure, there could be a false flag attack. But those are relatively rare and take time to prepare. Israel can't pull those off in the next couple days. Depending on where their subs are, they probably can get a cruise missile launch off before much longer.
I'm sure Iran would hit Dimona in a major war, but OTOH consider that the Iranians don't want Palestinians inhaling radioactive dust, either. So Iran would limit its strike to disabling the installation not causing a radiation release. It would probably be easy to disable it, but hard to get a radiation release anyway.
The bottom line is that Israel just needs to prod Iran a couple more times and then Iran will have to go all in, as will Hezbollah. Remember, the whole point of this Israeli is simply to get the US involved by providing something the US can blame on Iran. So all Israel needs to do is cause another Iranian reaction. Iran has already told the US that if the US responds to an Iran attack the way it did the other night, Iran will consider US bases as legitimate targets.
So Israel doesn't have to do much more than get one more Iranian retaliation in which the US is involved. Firing one cruise missile with a conventional warhead from a sub directly into Iran would do it.
Good points about Dimona. I was thinking the same thing this morning after writing that, actually, that all they have to do is disable the facility.
As to the subs, I wasn't thinking nuclear. I was just thinking that if the US bases are hit by ISIS which is under false flag colour of an Iranian SF attack, then that will for sure bring the US in. Of course there are other scenarios which will work too.
We'll soon find out. But given the players involved in the US and Israel, it's hard to see them pulling back, isn't it?
What crappy leaders we have in so many countries these days....
"There is no such thing as 'Israel dragging the US' into this war. The US is a full partner in it."
Absolutely. Why would the Biden administration not be lying this time?
Let us not forget, none of this would be happening had the US, UK and France not blocked a condemnation of the embassy attack at the UN.
--
"This is a 'rock and a hard place' problem that can only be solved with US involvement in the Lebanon invasion - OR a US attack on Iran on behalf of Israel."
OR the US could institute a no-fly zone over Israel. (No, I'm not going to hold my breath.) Like a parent restraining a child throwing a temper tantrum.
OR - there are probably lots of other ORs. And there are certainly other actors involved or potentially involved.
I do suggest that the child throwing a temper tantrum is an apt analogy. Some adult needs to restrain the child before he makes the mess. And often, in my experience, the child throws those tantrums because of poor parenting.
--
As to US being involved in yet-another-war.... That boggles the mind. The only reason I can see for that is a deliberate intention to throw the entire world into chaos. The US might think that gives it a winning hand because everyone else will have less. I dunno; the US fleet will be at the bottom of the sea but the global south and Russia and China will likely still be standing. Thank God.
" none of this would be happening had the US, UK and France not blocked a condemnation of the embassy attack at the UN."
Nope. Would have happened anyway. Iran had to retaliate for the attack on its sovereign territory (the Consulate.) Also, this was a perfect opportunity for Iran to demonstrate its capabilities (to a minimal, mostly performative degree compared to what it could do).
Also, as some are pointing out today, it enabled Iran to collect valuable combat data to analyze as to Israel's and the US' responses. As Andrei Martyanov likes to point out, military decisions need hard data to determine strategy and operational doctrine. Feeling out the enemy is how it's done.
Yeah, you are probably right. Iran said that a UNSC condemnation o the attack on consulate would have been enough, but they said that AFTER the strike, yes? Timingis everything!
All the governments of the NATO and EU nations are crazy too.
Your commentary is always welcome and appreciated RSH! Your logic is compelling- I’ll stop short of saying irrefutable- it might be - but I have to take the stance of “incurable optimist” as opposed to yours of “perpetual pessimist”. My take? The apartheid Jewish State of Israel- “stick a fork in it!” It’s done. Refrain from incapacitating Ben Gurion airport for a finite time to allow sensible citizens to emigrate- many already have dual citizenship - sad to admit that many of the “Ultra” Hasidim “settlers” are from large and fairly powerful Brooklyn congregations (strength in numbers- 6-10 children per family is the norm X multiple generations in the 20th century) and I’ve had various congregations as neighbors most of my life. They may choose martyrdom rather than leave…..oh well. Let Greater Palestine revert to those who have called it Home for the last millennium. I would favor a “carve out “ for Jerusalem as an Abrahamic holy land, jointly administered for the benefit of pilgrims to come, worship, and empower Peace on Earth as intended by the Creator. “You can say I’m a dreamer…….but I’m not the only one…..”
Any American in charge played Game Theory?
Great post, thanks. When my wife and I recently saw 'Dune 2' a week ago (out here in the west of Ireland, wow, our move from the US back to my home was well times), I said to her "I hope the Americans and Israelis all watch this film, because it'll prepare them for what's about to happen to them". Long before the current events, since reading JM Greer's piece from 2012 comparing Israel to the Crusader state Outremer, I've been wondering how long they could last. And prior to the last week, I'd have given them a chance of another 20 to 30 years. That's starting to seem unlikely now, and more than one analyst (including former US gov types) have put them in the 10 year range. Do you have an estimate? I think it'll be even sooner than that.
Well, it depends on how long this war - which I now view as inevitable - runs. It could be over in months, a year, or ten years like Afghanistan. This is the ridiculous part of this - these idiots are starting something they absolutely will not be able to control, any more than they did in Ukraine - but even less so.
There's no chance anyone can predict the outcome - other than that the US and Israel will lose because the Axis of Resistance has the advantage - because all of them are buried underground where no amount of military force can get to them without actually walking into those tunnels and bunkers and doing hand-to-hand, close quarter battle. Which the US isn't going to do.
The other possibility is that nukes get involved. At that point all predictions are off. Russia and China get involved, and then it becomes a fight between the US and Russia and China. IIRC, a nuke got used in Dune at one point to penetrate the Shield Wall in the attack on the Harkonnen base (in the book - haven't seen Part 2 of Dune yet.) :-)
Thanks for the reply. Yes, they used atomics in the second movie. Part 2 well worth the effort to see - definitely better on big screen - and part 3 (Dune Messiah) is also going to be made by the same director, he wants a trilogy).
Regarding the collapse, old man Orlov's 'reinventing collapse' seems to be playing out pretty well. Reminded also of Toynbee's model of civ rise and fall, his belief was the civs are formed by a 'creative minority', and when that minority becomes degenerate & senile, head for the hills (literally in my case!). I never cease to be amazed by the horrendous quality of leadership in the west - both in terms of intelligence (Johnoson, Bush, Truss, etc) and morality (liars like Starmer & Blair, Clinton, Obama, etc). Part of me wants to watch their project disintegrate, but I'm not keen to have isotopes rain down on my 1/2 acre either.
Interesting points RSH. Allow me to suggest a different lens. These leaders are not primarily crazy or deluded, they are essentially a criminal enterprise. The US foreign and domestic policy since at least 1948 has been driven by a lawless and ruthless desire to create a world providing wealth and power to the oligarchic class.
To that end all tools of government and media are bent to narrative control. The Oligarch Cartel is agnostic to the truth. Lies and truth are just a tool to further the Narrative.
So, as regards Istael here, the Narrative is aimed squarely at persuadable audiences to promote and retain power. They are not deluded. They know bery well their limits but they will say anything to maintain the illusion in the minds of the gullible public.
There are many useful idiots of course and they are either whores or dupes. But the top level of oligarchs know full well the game being played.
So, in the end, this Western Criminal Enterprise only ends by a collapse of the system incapable of supporting their predations any longer or it ends like any criminal gang in a violent shootout of some kind. Either way...not optimistic.
Of course I'm aware that these people are not "insane" in the clinical sense. They are psychopaths, which is not a mental illness but merely a behavior pattern. It is indeed a criminal exercise.
There's a difference between a rational psychopath and an irrational psychopath. We're being ruled by irrational psychopaths. Russia and China are ruled by rational psychopaths. And yes, Putin and Xi are psychopaths. Anyone ruling a country is a psychopath because only psychopaths get to that level of social power.
When I say "crazy", I mean stupid, ignorant and engaged in actions which will inevitably fail to achieve their stated goals while causing massive destruction around the world and eventually in the US itself if WWIII breaks out - which is where we're heading. The current lot are much more so than previous lots in either Israel or the US.
If you don't already, you should read Andrei Martyanov's blog "Reminiscence of the Future" where he excoriates the west's military and geopolitical and economic ignorance and stupidity on a daily basis.
In short, criminals tend to be stupid and ignorant as well as violent. The people running things have a criminal mindset - but better education and come from a higher social class than the usual street thugs. That's the only difference.