One scenario not explored here is the willingness of the US military to open this can of worms, or the furious backchanneling between the US and Russia that will occur as things heat up. Again, the moment the US joins this fight directly without a proxy will free and force everyone in. The brass knows this and they are the only ones in the west who know how hopeless this actually is. Could there be a military coup? Could Russia threaten the US interests enough to get them to back down? Do Israel’s nukes actually work? We know there are serious doubts about some of the US arsenal...
Every ISR asset in the west would be pointed at the ME and a staggering amount of ordnance would be expended. How could China and Russia not act in this scenario? What about DPRK? The west and Israel have been planning for this for some time but they have not been planning the same way that Iran and Hizbullah have. They’ve been planning on doing it but the how is lacking. Israel didn’t build any tunnels in the north, why? The US is reducing its stockpiles and not manufacturing even enough for Ukraine, why? Politicians talk about fighting 3 wars but this is a fantasy. China is the only winner of this war and Russia isn’t far behind. If it’s contained to the Axis vs US and Israel then the US loses. If China and Russia enter the war the US loses.
There won't be a coup in the US. There might be some mass resignations - but probably not over the Middle East, but instead over Ukraine, as allegedly happened over the weekend. If the ME situation escalates to the point where Russia and China weigh in directly, then the same could happen, but that might take a while to develop.
I don't see any mention of what the Europeans might do. While most of the governments are, essentially, run by Washington serious opposition to US imperialism is beginning to erupt among some serious political groups in the continent (obviously not in the UK). Even the pro-Ukraine politicians might not like all the focus on Israel and war just to support Israeli genocidal actions. It may be a hard sell over there where (other than the UK) there is not the rock solid support for the Greater Israel project.
I think the US should fear that, if there is a non-nuclear version of you various scenarios, their dominance of Europe may erode which is the one thing that the Ukraine War seemed to insure.
I mostly ignore the Europeans. Their military capability is next to zilch, and as you say they're so broken up these days, flailing around, that they're unlikely to be very relevant no matter what happens. The best they can do in the Middle East is send a few ships and some aircraft, much like they did in the Libya conflict. That will be mostly impotent.
It seems as though the EU is being set upon with weapons of mass migration whilst being further deindustrialized. Similar programs are happening in the USA and being either ignored or whitewashed.
As far as any sort of military response from Europe, UK et al: Exactly who are going to get to do it and where?!
Russia and China are not ready for ww3 so they will mostly stay out of this. Israel has nukes and the divine intervention from God. Even though Israel gets their donkey kicked, there will be no more Damascus, or Ammon as they get nuked and Israel will still win this war.
Israel has no chance of winning this war - your comment is just knee-jerk jingoism. Did you not read the article? Do it, with some attention to the arguments.
One scenario not explored here is the willingness of the US military to open this can of worms, or the furious backchanneling between the US and Russia that will occur as things heat up. Again, the moment the US joins this fight directly without a proxy will free and force everyone in. The brass knows this and they are the only ones in the west who know how hopeless this actually is. Could there be a military coup? Could Russia threaten the US interests enough to get them to back down? Do Israel’s nukes actually work? We know there are serious doubts about some of the US arsenal...
Every ISR asset in the west would be pointed at the ME and a staggering amount of ordnance would be expended. How could China and Russia not act in this scenario? What about DPRK? The west and Israel have been planning for this for some time but they have not been planning the same way that Iran and Hizbullah have. They’ve been planning on doing it but the how is lacking. Israel didn’t build any tunnels in the north, why? The US is reducing its stockpiles and not manufacturing even enough for Ukraine, why? Politicians talk about fighting 3 wars but this is a fantasy. China is the only winner of this war and Russia isn’t far behind. If it’s contained to the Axis vs US and Israel then the US loses. If China and Russia enter the war the US loses.
There won't be a coup in the US. There might be some mass resignations - but probably not over the Middle East, but instead over Ukraine, as allegedly happened over the weekend. If the ME situation escalates to the point where Russia and China weigh in directly, then the same could happen, but that might take a while to develop.
I don't see any mention of what the Europeans might do. While most of the governments are, essentially, run by Washington serious opposition to US imperialism is beginning to erupt among some serious political groups in the continent (obviously not in the UK). Even the pro-Ukraine politicians might not like all the focus on Israel and war just to support Israeli genocidal actions. It may be a hard sell over there where (other than the UK) there is not the rock solid support for the Greater Israel project.
I think the US should fear that, if there is a non-nuclear version of you various scenarios, their dominance of Europe may erode which is the one thing that the Ukraine War seemed to insure.
I mostly ignore the Europeans. Their military capability is next to zilch, and as you say they're so broken up these days, flailing around, that they're unlikely to be very relevant no matter what happens. The best they can do in the Middle East is send a few ships and some aircraft, much like they did in the Libya conflict. That will be mostly impotent.
It seems as though the EU is being set upon with weapons of mass migration whilst being further deindustrialized. Similar programs are happening in the USA and being either ignored or whitewashed.
As far as any sort of military response from Europe, UK et al: Exactly who are going to get to do it and where?!
Russia and China are not ready for ww3 so they will mostly stay out of this. Israel has nukes and the divine intervention from God. Even though Israel gets their donkey kicked, there will be no more Damascus, or Ammon as they get nuked and Israel will still win this war.
Israel has no chance of winning this war - your comment is just knee-jerk jingoism. Did you not read the article? Do it, with some attention to the arguments.