Another Ukrainian Interlude...

The slaughter accelerates...Possible the worst day yet for Ukraine...

OK, let’s look at today’s Russian Ministry of Defense “clobber report” and do our usual calculations. Also as usual, we will omit the descriptions of the various engagements at various locations in Ukraine.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation

(7 September 2023)

Part I (see Part II (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/9640))

The enemy losses were up to 110 Ukrainian servicemen, two tanks, four infantry fighting vehicles, two armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, one M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, and one U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, UK-manufactured FH-70, Msta-B and D-30 howitzers, as well as one Bukovel-AD electronic warfare station for detecting UAVs and blocking their control and navigation channels….

The enemy losses were over 320 Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, 12 motor vehicles, Polish-manufactured Krab and Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems, two D-30 howitzers, and one D-20 gun….

The enemy losses were up to 55 Ukrainian servicemen, two motor vehicles, three U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery systems, and one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system….

The enemy losses were up to 60 Ukrainian personnel, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three pickup trucks….

The enemy losses were up to 180 Ukrainian servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, five motor vehicles, one Polish-manufactured Krab self-propelled artillery system, two D-30 howitzers, and one Giatsint-B gun….

In Kherson direction, (https://t.me/mod_russia/30215) the enemy losses were up to 25 Ukrainian servicemen, two motor vehicles, and two U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery systems….

In addition, three Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups from the 126th Territorial Defence Brigade have been destroyed on the Pereyaslavsky Island….

Part II (see Part I (https://t.me/mod_russia_en/9662))

The enemy losses were up to 190 servicemen killed and wounded, three armoured fighting vehicles, four motor vehicles, as well as one U.S.-manufactured M777 artillery system….

One AFU field ammunition depot has been destroyed near Novodonetskoye (Donetsk People's Republic)….

In Kherson direction, the enemy losses were over 25 Ukrainian servicemen, three motor vehicles, and one Msta-B howitzer….

Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised manpower and military hardware in 113 areas.

In addition, one ST-68U air target detecting and tracking radar was destroyed near Trudovoye (Zaporozhye region).

Two command and observation posts of AFU 63rd mechanised and 100th territorial defence brigades have been hit near Serebryanka (Donetsk People's Republic).

So that is: 110 + 320 + 55 + 60 + 180 + 25 + 190 + 3 sabotage groups (of unreported strength so we assume at least four, so 12) = 952 KIA in ONE DAY!

Multiplying that figure by our usual ratio of 1.67, we get 1,590 WIA.

So far we have Ukrainian total losses at 2,542 KIA and WIA - in ONE DAY!

We now add in the field ammunition depot, the tracking radar, two command and observation posts, plus 113 manpower and hardware concentrations. That is a total of 117 "non-BDA (battle damage assessment)" strikes.

Assuming a minimum of 2 total KIA and WIA at each location, that increases the overall total by 234. In reality, the total is likely to be far higher than that. If the average KIA and WIA at each strike is 7, which is by no means unreasonable, that would be another 819 KIA and WIA.

So the overall Ukrainian losses for ONE DAY are now between 2,776 and 3,361.

This is as far as I am aware probably the worst day of the war for Ukraine so far, although I don’t read every day’s MoD report, so there may have been worse days recently. What matters is that this rate of loss has been steadily increasing since at least the launch of the so-called “Ukrainian counter-offensive” in June.

This daily loss translates to a monthly loss rate of 83,280 to 100,830.

I don’t think anything more needs to be said. As Scott Ritter has been saying in recent days, “This war is over.” A bit hyperbolic, as Scott is wont to be, but essentially accurate. No matter how many civilians Ukraine dragoons off the streets to be sent to the front, Ukraine can not sustain this rate of loss for much longer.

The reason the rate of loss has been increasing is not just because of the “offensive”, but because untrained and ill-equipped and ill-led forces are being sent to the front where they simply, as Scott also likes to say, “will die”. If Ukraine sends a million civilians to the front, they will die and the rate of loss will sky-rocket to scores or hundreds of thousands of KIA and WIA per day.

You can’t overcome a Russian army of 500,000 men and 1,500 tanks, thousands of artillery and dozens of attack helicopters and fighter-bombers with any number of civilians armed with AKs and two week’s training.

The only question remaining now is: Will the Russians hold off their coming advance once the Ukrainian army collapses until after winter, or will it advance despite winter - which it has the capability to do assuming Ukraine begins a general retreat?

Stay tuned. We’ll see.

Also stay tuned to this Substack. I’ll be continuing Part IV of my “An Annotated List of Movies and TV Shows That Have Influenced Me” series shortly.