Since your article of 11th July, I've tabulated the daily deaths and materiel dustruction reported by Russian MOD. That article reported 26,000 deaths. The sum of the daily totals up to yesterday (25th) is just over 14,000, so that up to 40,000 KIA in less than two month's action suggests 120,000 WIA over the same period. Not really sustainable over the longterm me thinks. James is doing sterling PR work on your behalf at MoA ;o)
Yes, my estimate of Ukraine losses at the present rate is somewhere between 30-60,000/month.
I use the figure of 1.67 times KIA to estimate WIA, which reflects the Ukraine International Institute of Sociology poll figures. So instead of 140,000 WIA, I would estimate 23,380 WIA.
Together with KIA that makes 60,000 which tracks my estimate. Over two months that would be my low-end estimate of 30,000/month. It's probably more.
Remember when you tally to add in the "concentrations of manpower and equipment" strikes, assuming at least one Ukrainian killed or wounded for every one of those as well as the specified losses. They add up over a month.
Definitely not sustainable losses as my previous article discussed.
Thank you for your report. It's well presented and seems well researched.
Excellent analysis, which corroborates my own research in this area.
Since your article of 11th July, I've tabulated the daily deaths and materiel dustruction reported by Russian MOD. That article reported 26,000 deaths. The sum of the daily totals up to yesterday (25th) is just over 14,000, so that up to 40,000 KIA in less than two month's action suggests 120,000 WIA over the same period. Not really sustainable over the longterm me thinks. James is doing sterling PR work on your behalf at MoA ;o)
Yes, my estimate of Ukraine losses at the present rate is somewhere between 30-60,000/month.
I use the figure of 1.67 times KIA to estimate WIA, which reflects the Ukraine International Institute of Sociology poll figures. So instead of 140,000 WIA, I would estimate 23,380 WIA.
Together with KIA that makes 60,000 which tracks my estimate. Over two months that would be my low-end estimate of 30,000/month. It's probably more.
Remember when you tally to add in the "concentrations of manpower and equipment" strikes, assuming at least one Ukrainian killed or wounded for every one of those as well as the specified losses. They add up over a month.
Definitely not sustainable losses as my previous article discussed.
James is doing a wonderful job. Nice guy.